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Climate of irrationality

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Sep 30, 2012 | From the print edition

Developed and developing countries are divided over regulating super greenhouse gases under Montreal Protocol

ozone dayThe multilateral treaty to protect the ozone layer has been a successful environmental agreement. But an impasse over restricting the use of extremely potent greenhouse gases is set to mar the 25th anniversary celebrations of the Montreal Protocol on September 16.

These gases, called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), emerged as the coolant of choice after the Protocol banned ozone-depleting chemicals used in the refrigeration and air-conditioning sectors. While developed countries seek to amend the treaty to bring HFCs under its radar, developing countries contend that the agreement does not and cannot have the mandate to regulate greenhouse gases. They say the amendment proposal is a ploy of rich nations to sell HFC replacement technologies and mint money.

Produced mostly in developed countries, HFCs replaced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), that were phased out under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. HFCs pose no harm to the ozone layer because, unlike CFCs and HCFCs, they do not contain chlorine that depletes the ozone layer. But it has been established that HFCs are not innocuous either. They are super-greenhouse gases with an extremely high global warming potential. This means they are capable of trapping enormous amounts of infrared radiations in the atmosphere and can cause a greenhouse effect a thousand times stronger than carbon dioxide.

ozone day
ozone day

It’s been four years since the issue of bringing HFCs under the Protocol’s ambit was raised. Developed countries say that since the rise in the emission of super-greenhouse gases is a consequence of the phasing out of CFCs and HCFCs under the Montreal Protocol, the same agreement should monitor them. Developing countries like India, China and Brazil, however, say that the emission and regulation of greenhouse gases fall under the purview of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and HFCs already figure in the basket of six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol. Developed countries following the Kyoto Protocol report their HFC emission data to UNFCCC; parties to the Montreal Protocol have no such obligation. The Indian government maintains that HFCs should be discussed under UNFCCC as a matter of princip le.

At the root of this argument is a doubt. Developing countries are apprehensive about the high cost of transition from HFCs to a safer option. A technology transfer mechanism is under discussion at UNFCCC. Developing countries trust the UN body to devise a more economical option than what could be provided under the Montreal Protocol. Besides, they say they have been toeing the line of the developed world for years, but not anymore. How so?

Constant change

In accordance with the provisions of the Montreal Protocol, developed countries began phasing CFCs out in the late 1980s. Developing countries were granted a grace period till the levels of the harmful gases reached a threshold level in these regions. Only after that were they supposed to take on the commitments to phase CFCs out.

HFC-23: a money-minting, manmade evil
 

HFC-23 is a potent greenhouse gas, generated during the manufacturing of coolant HCFC-22. The gas has a limited industrial use in extremely low temperature refrigeration and speciality fire suppressants. There are 19 HCFC-22 production facilities in developing countries that capture and destroy HFC-23. These are financed by carbon emission reduction credits under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

But the financial aid is about to stop. Effective from January 2012, the EU has banned the use of HFC-23 credits. Since the CDM programme started, 46 per cent of the credits were awarded to the 19 factories, 11 of which are in China and four in India. The remaining are spread across Argentina, Mexico, South Korea and Russia.

According to Sukumar Devotta, former director of the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, the West realised that its decision to buy carbon credits which the developing countries obtained by destroying HFC-23, had boomeranged. The economics is simple: developing countries had an incentive for destroying HFC-23 as this earned them a very high number of carbon credits. Under the UNFCCC methodology, carbon dioxide, released by smokestacks and vehicles, is given a value of 1. Other industrial gases are assigned values relative to that, based on their warming effect and how long they linger. For instance, methane is valued at 21, nitrous oxide at 310 and so on. HFC-23 is near the top of the list, at 11,700. The carbon credits earned by destroying one tonne of HFC-23 stand at 11,700 as opposed to one carbon credit earned by destroying one tonne of carbon dioxide. This has driven plants in the developing world to increase the production of HCFC-22.

Is the ban going to help? There is little hope as atmospheric concentrations of HCFC-22 continue to rise, likely due to its production in facilities not covered by the Kyoto Protocol’s CDM projects. This, in turn, contributes to a rise in HFC-23 levels in the atmosphere. Data indicates that over 90 per cent of annual HFC-23 emissions originate from non-CDM HCFC-22 production facilities in China. There will likely be no end to this till the HCFCs are phased out under the Montreal Protocol.
 

 

Once the phase-out began, developing countries were free of CFCs by 2010. But by this time the use of HCFCs increased sharply in these countries. In the fourth meeting of the Montreal Protocol in 1990, developed countries pledged to freeze the production and consumption of HCFCs by 2004, and phase them out completely by 2020. Developing countries consented to freeze them by 2013 and phase them out by 2030. This means that from next year onwards, developing countries are expected to move to gases with lesser impact on the ozone. And that should ideally be HFCs since they are the third generation gases already in use in developed nations.

But since HFCs have now been found to have a high global warming potential and their emissions are already on rise, developed countries maintain that developing countries should not use them as a replacement for HCFCs. In effect, they are asking developing nations to leapfrog to the next generation of coolants when they themselves continue to use HFCs. The argument is that unless HFCs are phased out along with HCFCs, the impact on global warming will be severe. But developing countries’ answer to the debate is a question—where are the alternatives to HFCs?

Although there are HFCs with a lower global warming potential, just a handful of companies in developed nations have the technical knowhow in that field. The warming potential of an HFC depends on its atmospheric lifetime, which is the duration after which the gas naturally disintegrates. Those with a shorter lifespan are less hazardous. For instance, HFC-134a has a lifetime of about 13 years and its global warming potential is 1,370. In contrast, HFC-1234yf, with a lifetime of about 10 days, has a global warming potential of four.

“We would have to completely depend on four companies—DuPont, Arkema, Honeywell and Diakin—for the technology. We are not paying for another conversion,” says Sukumar Devotta, former chief of the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) and coordinating lead author of “Safeguarding ozone layer and global climate systems: Issues related to HFCs and PFCs”, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel.

“It has become a way for developed countries to earn money. First they asked us to phase out CFCs and use HCFCs. We borrowed technology from them. They gained financially. Now when we are phasing out HCFCs and are planning to go the HFC way, they are telling us to adopt a new technology which we know nothing about. How much time will this technology take to develop? When will it become commercially available?” asks Devotta, adding that these questions need to be answered before any shift is made.

According to a 2011 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report, there is no one-size-fits-all alternative to HFCs. Even though technologies with low global warming potential are commercially available they cater to specific applications and geographic regions. There are certain barriers in their wider application. These products require regulatory approvals and new safety standards before commercialisation as they contain flammable or toxic gases like ammonia and propane. In most regions, except in Europe, low-global-warming-potential technologies are fairly minor players, says the report. With profits from the existing cooling systems booming and no effective regulation on HFCs, there is little incentive for countries or companies to bring new products in the market. But Indian firm Godrej claims to be the first company in the world to have started making and selling air conditioners that do not use the HFCs as coolants (Setting a precedent).

The F-gas Regulation

Unlike many developed countries, EU has legislation to control the use of HFCs, which it calls the Fluorinated Gases Regulation or the F-gas Regulation. But a report by the Environment Investigation Agency, a non-profit in the UK, says that while EU has almost completed the phase out of HCFCs, its HFC emissions have risen by 28 per cent, and might rise to 82 per cent by 2050, even with the full implementation of the F-gas Regulation. The regulation, clearly, is not sufficient to address the HFC emissions. Studies indicate that if the increase continues in its present pattern, it would offset the benefits of Montreal Protocol.

imageThe HFC emissions are projected to reach 5.5–8.8 giga tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (GtCO2-eq/yr) by 2050. Carbon dioxide equivalent per year is the measure of a quantity that describes the amount of carbon dioxide that would have the same global warming ability as a given mixture and amount of a greenhouse gas when measured over a specific timescale. In comparison, emissions of ozone-depleting substances peaked at 9.4 GtCO2-eq/yr in 1988 and could have reached 15–18 GtCO2-eq/yr in 2010 in the absence of Montreal Protocol.

The UNEP report states that the current contribution of HFCs to climate change is less than one per cent. The problem, however, is that the emissions of the ones with longer lifespan are on the rise due to their extensive use in developed countries. Therefore, the argument returns: while developed world itself is using HFCs why should it burden developing countries with a new technology regime that is not even in place?

While the debate appears endless, research has linked global warming to ozone depletion, prompting the need for urgent action to check the levels of HFCs.

Bad news for the US

A recent study by Harvard University published in Science found that the US is under serious risk of ozone loss. During intense summer storms in the country, water vapour is thrust into an otherwise dry lower stratosphere. This water vapour reacts with the chlorine and bromine that have appeared in the atmosphere as a result of the widespread use of CFCs in the past. The products of these reactions damage the stratospheric ozone. While the use of CFCs has now declined, the chlorine and bromine released in the stratosphere might take decades to deplete.

More global warming would lead to more storms, and they will increase the risk of ozone loss, the study found. The news has come as a jolt to the US, which has been evading action on climate change and has maintained that it will not commit to any legally binding emission reduction target till emerging economies like India and China do so. Researchers also pointed out that a similar condition could exist over other mid-latitude regions. But while the scientific community continues to issue repeated warnings over environmental degradation, nations stay stuck in policy quicksand.

Setting a precedent
 

Godrej becomes the first company to commercialise green air-conditioners that use propane and not HFCs In mid-2010, the Ozone cell of the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests and Godrej collaborated with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), which helps the German government with services on international cooperation and sustainable development, to develop an environment-friendly technology for air- conditioning.

After deliberations, they zeroed in on propane, a gas that neither impacts ozone negatively nor is a super greenhouse gas, like HFC. In April 2012, Godrej went commercial with its nON-HFC air-conditioners. Marketed under Godrej Eon Green Balance Series, the air-conditioners use a propane gas-based technology called R290, which has zero ozone-depleting potential and a global warming potential of three.

The product has currently been introduced in the premium range of air-conditioners, says George Menezes, Chief Operating Officer, Godrej Appliances. “We have set up a business line and we should start using the technology for all our air conditioners soon,” Menezes adds.

Although the launch is only recent, the company is excited about the product, which is in “keeping with its tradition of sustainability”. The claim of tradition of sustainability stems out of the company’s hydrocarbon refrigerators, brought to the market 10 years ago, making it the only company in India to manufacture green refrigerators then.

But aren’t propane and hydrocarbons flammable? “All safety precautions have been taken into account. Our new product conforms to the EN378 standard, the European standard for the design and construction of refrigeration systems. Besides, we have been using hydrocarbons in our refrigerators for long, so we can confidently say that we have perfected the technology,” says Menezes.

AddThis

Climate Irrationality in the light of The New Theory on Climate Change

Dr. Mirza Arshad Ali Beg
Former Director General PCSIR

Climate Irrationality has never ever been resolved. One may have hoped the phase-out CFCs by 2010 would restore the status of ozone depletion in the stratosphere but the sharp increase in the use of HCFCs that partly substituted the CFCs mattered little. Developed countries pledged to freeze the production and consumption of HCFCs by 2004, and phase them out completely by 2020, while the developing countries that had the capacity to produce them, consented to freeze them by 2013 and phase them out by 2030. The developing countries are therefore moving to HFCs that are the third generation gases already in use in developed nations, although the HFCs have a high global warming potential.
The emission of GHGs and warming of the globe is in the mean time continuing to rise. The Harvard University study published in Science suggests serious loss of ozone. This is an indicator that factors responsible for loss of ozone are varied.
My theory on climate change (reported in www.downtoearth.org) takes better stock of climate irrationality. The theory holds that anthropogenic activity has, through increased oxidative dehydration (OD) of land, burning of biomass and other combustibles, increased the concentration of the CO2 and water, the main constituents of the Green House Gases (GHG)s, warmed the microenvironment, left the CO2 and other acidic gases unabsorbed, and produced an equivalent of at least half the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. The global warmth can be reduced by reductive rehydration of the CO2, and other acidic gases. The reductive rehydration process is in operation among the plants and vegetation on land and by phytoplankton in the sea. The excessive amount of water vapour being produced by anthropogenic activities remains in the atmosphere.
Removal of vegetative cover through indiscriminate cutting of trees for lumber or clearing land for agricultural activities has deforested extensive land area and has left the GHGs mainly CO2 and moisture in the atmosphere. This has restrained the natural process of reductive rehydration by photosynthesis and has thus altered the heat balance of the ecosystem of earth, while the heat generated has increased the warmth of the environment, and the unabsorbed GHGs have been left free to selectively acidify the microenvironment. GHGs in appropriate concentration in the atmosphere are needed to maintain the heat balance, which however is disturbed by the excess amount of vapour and is responsible for excessive warmth or rise in temperature as well as humidity.
The theory thus holds the excessive amount of water vapour being pumped into the atmosphere and stratosphere to be responsible for the Climate Irrationality and the rise in temperature of the earth and the seas. The temperature of the heat zone that drives the monsoon engine for India and Pakistan has, thanks to deforestation and desertification risen to over 40oC. Likewise the temperature of the Arabian Sea has risen by 1.5oC.

With regard to Ozone depletion it is important to take into account the systems that produce ozone:
Production. Ultraviolet (uv) radiation from the sun splits molecules O2 into two free oxygen atoms O, which immediately combine with oxygen to produce ozone O3 with the help of a random air molecule M (N2 or O2).

Eq 1) O2 + uv-light –> 2 O

Eq 2) 2 O + 2 O2+ M –> 2 O3+ M

Production of ozone is highest in the tropical atmosphere at heights near 40 km. The circulation in the stratosphere then carries the ozone to other regions.

Destruction. Solar radiation of any wavelength from near infrared to ultraviolet can destroy ozone. This too is highest in the tropical atmosphere at heights near 40 km.
Eq 3) O3 + sunlight –> O2 + O
Eq 4) O + O + M –> O2+ M

Eq 5) O + O3 –> 2 O2

This reaction Eq 5 is relatively weak since almost all the O atoms combine with molecular oxygen to remake ozone. The remaking of ozone will be restrained if the O atoms have the opportunity to enter into a competing reaction, for example with hydroxyl radicals:
•OH + •O → O2 + •H and
•OH + •N → NO + •H

The competing reactions take place during intense activities of summer monsoons and summer storms. Excessive water vapour generated during the heating of desiccated land surface and the consequent rise in the temperature of the seas is being thrust into the dry lower stratosphere. Here the water vapour undergoes another series of simultaneous reactions in which hydroxyl radicals are produced by the reaction of excited atomic oxygen with water.

Dr. Mirza Arshad Ali Beg
Former Director General PCSIR

18 September 2012
Posted by
Dr. Mirza Arshad Ali Beg

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