climate change is the biggest story of the 21st century. But its sheer complexity is defeating us.

For the past 16 years—the first intergovernmental negotiation took place in Washington dc in early 1991—the world has been haggling about what it knows but does not want to accept. It has desperately sought every excuse not to act, even as science has reconfirmed that climate change is real and is related to co₂ and other emissions, which are related to economic growth and wealth creation—it is humanmade and can devastate the world.

Now as the world prepares to burn more carbon miles to travel to the paradise of Bali in Indonesia for the 13th Conference of Parties to the climate convention, it will discuss, once again what it knows it needs to do. We hope (and demand) that this time the response will be different and desperate.

Science is certain but not simple
Science is not just certain, it is unequivocal that if climate change proceeds as it is doing devastation is inevitable. But along with understanding the still abstruse science we must begin to put a human face to the climate change that is happening around us. We must see climate change in the faces of the millions who lost homes to cyclone Sidr which ripped through Bangladesh. We need to know that thousands of people died because the rich failed to contain emissions necessary for their growth.

When we say this, we know climate-sceptics and purist-scientists will argue it is difficult to prove cause and effect. After all, we cannot say this cyclone is related to climate change. It is a natural disaster, not a humanmade crime. This is when science has clearly established that intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones will increase as the Earth warms.

We may never be able to make direct correlations between events that we see around us and global warming. But when the world is unequally divided between polluters and victims, clearly, prevarication and denial will be the name of the game.

This is the context of the Bali meeting: the science is certain but the politics stinks.

Talk not action
As the call for action becomes more strident and urgent (it must) the world looks for petty responses. There is an orchestrated media and civil society campaign to paint China and India as villains. If they want to develop, they are told they are most vulnerable. “We don’t want blame games. Even if the West created the problem, you must in your interest take the lead in reparations,” is the spiel.

The West’s hysteria is growing, but so is its inaction. The irony is these countries had agreed in 1997 to make a small cut in their gargantuan emissions, in the interest of all. These cuts were nowhere close to what was needed to avert climate change. The fact (mostly unsaid) is these countries have done nothing, absolutely nothing, to contain their emissions. Between 1990 and 2005, rich country emissions have gone up by 11 per cent. They have reneged on their commitment. They have let us all down.

But how can they get away with this? Why is the focus on China and India; still much poorer and already more environmentally responsible?

The reason is two-fold. One, they can ‘officially’ fudge because they are allowed to use low emissions from the collapsed economies of the former Soviet Union countries to dilute the statistics. Two, they get away with it because world opinion backs them. After all, emissions are related to wealth and power. Who will rock this boat?

It is convenient to play the cop and villain game. The rich nations know the Chinese, Indians, Brazilians, South Africans and the rest are all in the race to become rich and powerful.