Scorching hot summer has already knocked the door of some states such as Chhattisgarh, which is recording higher than normal temperature. Chhattisgarh’s maximum temperature is around 37 degree Celsius, which is three to four degrees higher than usual. The early onset of summer means there is higher probability of heat waves, that too, a bit early than the normal schedule.
This is not an isolated example. The whole country is going to face serious heat wave this year. In a statement issued by the Indian Meteorological department (IMD), higher temperature in country during pre-monsoon season (March to May) has been predicted.
The seasonal average temperatures over many of the subdivisions from northwest and neighbouring central India are likely to be above normal by more than 1°C.
The weather forecasting body of the country says that the seasonal average maximum temperature is likely to be warmer than normal by ≥1 °C over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, HCD (Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi), Himachal Pradesh, west and east Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, west and east Uttar Pradesh, west and east Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh.
It is likely to be 0.5 degree higher in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and the Rayalseema region.
According to IMD, the remaining sub-divisions are likely to experience maximum temperature anomalies between 0.5°C to 1°C.
The agency has said that the early onset of higher temperature means higher probability of heat waves in most parts of the country. There is about 52 per cent probability of grid point maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during March to May 2018 to be above normal.
Core Heat Wave zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Since 2016, the IMD and the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) have been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks for subdivision scale temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons based on ocean-atmosphere climate model.