Climate Catastrophe and Resilience

About 11,000 extreme weather events killed more than 528,000 people and caused economic losses of around US$ 3.08 trillion between 1996 and 2015. Which countries faced the maximum brunt? How can we prevent and prepare? The statistics is intimidating, but it is important to contextualise ongoing climate policy debates, especially the international climate discussions.

Ten most affected countries

Africa, the host region of the UN climate summit 2016, is severely affected by extreme weather events with four countries ranking among the 10 most affected countries in 2015–Mozambique (1st), Malawi (3rd), Ghana and Madagascar (joint 8th position).

Ranking 2015 (2014)	Country	Region	CRI score	Death toll	Deaths per 100 000 inhabitants	Absolute losses (in million US$ PPP)	Losses per unit GDP in %	Human Development Index 2014
1 (23)	Mozambique	Africa	12.17	351	1.25	500.07	1.499	180
2 (138)	Dominica	North America	13.00	31	43.66	611.22	77.369	94
3 (60)	Malawi	Africa	13.83	111	0.61	907.98	4.451	173
4 (10)	India	South Asia	15.33	4317	0.33	40 077.22	0.501	130
5 (29)	Vanuatu	Oceania	20.33	11	4.09	278.86	40.650	134
6 (94)	Myanmar	Asia	20.83	173	0.33	1 359.65	0.479	148
7 (138)	The Bahamas	North America	22.83	33	9.07	80.64	0.904	55
8 (118)	Ghana	Africa	23.33	267	0.99	306.28	0.265	140
8 (34)	Madagascar	Africa	23.33	118	0.49	228.04	0.642	154
10 (62)	Chile	South America	25.17	39	0.22	2 652.69	0.627	42

▶ Data Source: GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2017, German Watch

$3 Trillion Damage Dilemma

Between 1996 and 2015, the economic loss due to extreme weather events was estimated at a staggering $3.08 trillion with India and China bearing the maximum brunt.

✎ How to use graph: Mouse move over the bubble of country to know more

▶ Data Source: GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2017, German Watch

At the frontline of climate change

While studies are looking into the risk of extreme events due to the influences of climate change, the 12th edition of the Global Climate Risk Index shows the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events to help countries prepare better for more frequent and/or more severe events in the future.

✎ How to use map: Select a parameter and move mouse over particular country to know more

▶ Note: Vunerability and Lack of adaptation capacity in per cent
▶ Data Source: GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2017, German Watch and World Risk Report 2016 published by the United Nations University (UNU) Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and Bundnis Entwicklung Hilft

Climate change: a continuous threat to Africa

Africa is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, mainly because of its low adaptive capacity. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are likely to reduce the already low agricultural output and challenge food security. In 2015, African countries have been heavily struck by weather catastrophes.
✎ move mouse over bars to know more

▶ Data Source: GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2017, German Watch

Adaptation capacity

Where does Africa stand when it comes to adaptation to Climate Change? Be it lack of drought-resistant crops, early-warning systems for floods or urban infrastructure protection measures, the African countries such as Chad, Liberia, Mali, Sudan and Eritrea fare poorly on building adaptation capacity.

✎ move mouse over particular country to know more

▶ Data Source: World Risk Report 2016 published by the United Nations University (UNU) Institute for Environment and Human Security
(UNU-EHS) and Bundnis Entwicklung Hilft

Sub-sectors for adaptation and mitigation actions at the farm level

From maintaining productivity of soils to building resilience of cropping systems, there are several agriculture practices needed for adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts and yielding economic benefits.

Here's a brief rundown on what practices can be followed as a part of climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Soils and land

A suite of practices can contribute to the stability and productivity of soils. Minimum or no-till, along with mulch or other soil cover reduces erosion by up to 80 per cent. It increases soil organic matter, increases soil-water infiltration and reduces runoff. On grasslands, improving pasture with irrigation or leguminous species can provide more feed for livestock and avoid land degradation.

Livestock

Climate change threatens to affect livestock systems in several ways. But it is tricky to raise livestock as it contributes about 14 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions globally. Adaptation options include changing livestock breeds or species, adjusting stocking densities and improving resilience of cropping systems since crop residues is a feed source.

Crops

Farmers may replace crop varieties or species to those more resistant to drought and disease. Replacing coffee with cocoa is one such example. Changing the timing or location of cropping activities is also recommended. Besides pest, disease and weed management, diversifying crop species will be critical to ensure climate resilience.

Water

Capturing and storing water for later use and plastic mulching (practices to conserve soil moisture) are adaptive practices for building climate resilience. Some countries have been experimenting with more efficient use of irrigation water like drip irrigation.

Fisheries

Temperature variations and saline intrusion into freshwater habitat due to climate change affect aquaculture and fisheries throughout the world. Mangrove protection and rehabilitation gives a protective shield to aquatic ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture production systems. Diversification of livelihoods and improved forecasting and early warning systems help coastal communities in disaster preparedness.

Trees

Erratic rainfall, extreme heat and pest put enormous pressure on tree-cropping systems. Besides opting for diversification with shade trees and other species with mitigation potential, measures need to be taken to improve soil, nutrient and pest management practices. Integrating trees into cropland and grazing land can increase agro-ecosystem resilience.

¤ Data Courtesy:

1. Global Climate Risk Index, 2017, German Watch
2. World Risk Report 2016 published by the United Nations University (UNU) Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and Bundnis Entwicklung Hilft
3. The Economic Advantage: Assessing the value of climate-change actions in agriculture, IFAD, 2016

¤ Text, design and Analysis: Lalit Maurya and Subhojit Goswami

Practices	Adaptation	Mitigation	Economics
Tillage and residue management.	Improves soil structure and fertility. Reduces the negative yield effects of rainfall variability.	Combining no-till with residue retention increases the potential for carbon accumulation in soils.	Evidence on the profitability of tillage and residue management is mixed.
Improved pasture (irrigation, planting leguminous or improved species, fertilization).	Improved ecological functioning allows pastures and rangelands to continue supporting livestock, even with variable or extreme weather.	Enhances carbon storage.	Generally profitable for market-oriented farmers.
Earth or stone bunds, terraces.	Reduces erosion, increases water infiltration.	May have carbon sequestration potential; little empirical evidence available on the magnitude of this potential.	Increases yields where water is a key constraint. Lack of empirical evidence on net economic impact.

Practices	Adaptation	Mitigation	Economics
Changing breeds or species.	Native tropical breeds and species (e.g. Bos indicus cattle) are generally more heat and droughttolerant but lower performing. Breeding of high-erforming, heatadapted animals is a promising strategy, but a slow process.	Increasing animal performance or switching rom cattle to smaller livestock reduces GHG emissions per unit of food produced; breeding animals for lower methane emissions is ossible but likely still several decades off.	System-level adaptations that improve productivity and link farmers to markets generally increase net income; potential trade-offs between productivity, heat tolerance and emissions at the individual animal level.
Grazing management (adjust stocking densities to feed availability, rotational grazing).	Improved ecological functioning of pastures and rangelands may lead to reduced variability in livestock production and increase resilience to drought.	Optimal grazing levels can enhance C storage; effects not well established.	Generally profitable for market-oriented livestock keepers. Restoration practices that require excluding livestock are expensive.
Improved feeding, adjusting forage crops.	Reduces fluctuation of feed during dry season.	Improves system productivity, reducing emissions’ intensity (emissions per unit of meat or milk).	Generally increases net revenues, depending on cost of improved feed.

Practices	Adaptation	Mitigation	Economics
Changing crop varieties or species.	Increases tolerance to heat, drought, pest or disease pressure.	Negligible mitigation potential unless changing from annual to perennial species.	Improved crop breeds generally have substantial positive effects on net income; switching crops can also increase income, depending on markets for alternative crops.
Changing timing or location of cropping activities.	Reduces risk of crop loss due to drought or other weather extremes.	Negligible mitigation potential. Has potential to increase emissions, if croplands encroach on forest.	Little empirical evidence.
Improved pest, disease and weed management.	Reduces risk of crop losses due to biological pressures; improves water and nutrient use efficiency.	Negligible mitigation potential.	Little empirical evidence on profitability as an adaptation strategy.
Nutrient management.	Supports resilience of crops, increases yields.	Moderate mitigation potential due to reduced nitrogen (N) loss as N2O.	Substantial economic benefits where fertilizers have been under-applied. Modest increases in net income due to savings in fertilizer use where fertilizers have been over-applied.
Diversfyiing crop species, changing balance of crop and livestock activities.	Reduces livelihood vulnerability by providing other sources of food or income.	Adding tree crops can have substantial mitigation benefits.	Generally modest increases in net income. Highly dependent on portfolio of crops and animals chosen.

Practices	Adaptation	Mitigation	Economics
Water harvesting, supplemental irrigation.	Increases crop yield. Buffers against drought.	Can enhance carbon storage through increased yields and residue returns.	Substantially increases net profits.
Efficient use of irrigation water, conservation of soil moisture.	Efficient use of irrigation water, conservation of soil moisture.	Potential energy savings; reduction in CH4 in the case of irrigated rice.	Highly dependent on irrigation system; drip irrigation has not been shown to increase net income for smallholders.
Periodic drainage of irrigated rice.	Reduces water use by up to 30%.	Can reduce CH4 emissions by up to 50% or more, if practised correctly.	Increases profits due primarily to savings on irrigation and pumping costs. May improve yields.

Practices	Adaptation	Mitigation	Economics
Adaptation options for capture fisheries (ecosystem approaches, coastal protection, early warning systems, governance of fisheries, shift to cultivated systems).	Goal of adaptation is adjustment of fishing pressure to sustainable levels.	Mangrove protection and rehabilitation has moderate mitigation potential.	Limited empirical evidence; depends on management instruments used.
Adaptation options for aquaculture (breeding for resilience, infrastructure improvements, water use efficiency, change feed, diversify livelihoods).	Goal of adaptation is reduced vulnerability to temperature changes, saltwater intrusion, floods and droughts, and changes in water quality (e.g. eutrophication).	Minimal mitigation potential, mostly related to energy use.	Limited empirical evidence on economic impact of adaptation options in aquaculture systems.