Kerala can’t withstand more COVID-19 lockdown: Thomas Isaac

Former Kerala finance minister TM Thomas Isaac had been at the forefront of the state’s war against the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Now, taking a break from electoral politics and engaged in the writing of a book on the economy in the pandemic age, Isaac spoke to KA Shaji on the present COVID-19 situation in Kerala and future challenges. Edited excerpts: 

KA Shaji: What is your assessment of the caseload that remains so high in Kerala? How do you explain the paradoxes, for example, more vaccination, yet lower immunity; more testing, yet more spread?

 

Thomas Isaac: A state known for its high population density, Kerala can feel at ease only when a large majority of its people gets both doses of the COVID-19 vaccine and herd immunity develops.

Unfortunately, these are the two areas in which the state government has many limitations. The Centre controls both the manufacture and supply of the vaccines by dealing directly with the private manufacturers. As far as Kerala is concerned, it ensured careful handling and administration of vaccines to the most number of people. It has no role in vaccine shortage.

Another issue in Kerala is the increasing number of people with comorbidities and lifestyle diseases. Now, the state government is conducting a seroprevalence study among various age groups, including children.

There is an unprecedented situation in Kerala. We are passing through the worst-case scenario. There are limitations in enforcing another round of state-specific complete lockdowns.

According to experts, only such harsh measures can diminish test positivity rates. But we don’t want to impose more restrictions on people who have already suffered a lot, mainly in terms of finance and livelihood.

KAS: The world has praised Kerala for its deft handling of the first phase of COVID-19. Is the state now finding itself directionless amid the second wave?

TI: What observers must not forget is the fact that Kerala has a high COVID-19 testing rate. It means the elevated case numbers may have occurred due to its effective testing, which many other states are missing.

Though the state contained the first wave effectively and that too with adequate public participation, a higher share of its population remained without antibodies and therefore vulnerable easily to the highly infective Delta variant.

Among Indian states, Kerala has one of the largest migrant populations in India, with 2.5 million workers from other parts of the country crossing it.

An estimated four million Keralites live and work abroad, mainly in Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates. More than 1.2 million such people have returned to the state from overseas since the beginning of the pandemic, raising the risk of imported cases.

At another level, numerous medical and paramedical staff returned to their home state in recent months after serving as frontline medical staff in other parts of the country. Above all, the election held to the state Assembly had created a situation in which all prevailing social-distancing norms had been eased. The state was compelled to relax rules during festivals like Onam, Christmas and Ramzan.

Despite all these, the state managed things without them getting out of hand and without allowing death to claim more affected people.

Many health experts told me that the highly ‘migratory’ Kerala community picked up the virus late during the second wave. However, the state is still able to limit the cases to around 30,000 daily.

KAS: What is the road ahead?

TI: The government has ramped up its vaccination drive by setting up drive-through vaccination centres and deploying health workers to places like construction sites to inoculate workers.

Some 63 per cent of Kerala’s adults have received at least one dose of the vaccine and 38 per cent of people are fully vaccinated.

KAS: Why is Kerala’s death rate is nearly half of the country’s daily total?

TI: Kerala has the highest population of older adults in India. It may be one of the reasons for the high death rate.

The state’s ability to decrease the death rate would improve when more people get vaccinated. The health department has confirmed that 90 per cent of people who died in the state from COVID-19 from June-September were unvaccinated.

It is true that lapses have occurred in the test, trace and isolate methodology using grassroots networks, unlike in the first phase.

Stress is prevalent on a large scale among frontline health workers, local voluntary activists and Panchayat bodies that have done interventions without a break from March 2020.

KAS: There are numerous instances of police excesses on people who are already struggling to survive because of their shattered earnings and livelihood.

TI: The police force, which has been in the front of preventive measures from the beginning, too remains stressed. I do agree that in several places, innocent people turned victims of police excesses.

But the government has always taken corrective measures and stood solidly with the local communities and their natural rights. Despite all the limitations, the state has ensured conducting tests widely apart from reporting cases honestly and vaccinating quickly.

Ensuring hospitals were not overwhelmed was another considerable task the state undertook. As vaccination hurdles are moving away, we hope the next rounds of infection will not be as severe as the second wave.

KAS: What effect has the state’s lockdown policy had on the economy? Could the lockdowns have been managed better?  

TI: Until the state achieves collective immunity and most people get two doses of the vaccine, we have to create mass awareness on how to live with the virus.

As an economist and politician with grassroots links with people, I am totally against lockdowns as a concept. But Kerala had to implement it in an unavoidable situation.

We could contain the pandemic to a certain extent due to the lockdowns, but it shattered our economy. Only the government interventions like the free food kits have saved marginalised communities and urban and rural poor from poverty deaths.

Livelihood, small-scale enterprises, trade, commerce and tourism have been shattered. We will not be able to withstand another bout of lockdown.

We were able to manage lockdowns better compared to many other states. But there were failures. There were shortcomings. And unanticipated hardships to the people.

KAS: What lessons should other states learn from Kerala and the surge it is experiencing currently?    

TI: Kerala has successfully contained the first phase of COVID-19 by achieving a low rate of spread, high recovery and low fatality. The robust public health system, social capital and the active involvement of the people through local governments had played a significant role in that success.

But in the second phase, electioneering and different festivals have created a situation in which people forget COVID-19 protocol and celebrate things.

Some large-scale protests too had been organised in the state without following social distancing and other protocols. For any Indian state, the model is emulated in what Kerala adopted in the first phase.

In the second phase, we managed to not let things go out of hand because of the initiatives taken at the first phase. In the case of elections and festivals, other states have lessons to learn from Kerala.

But Kerala’s peculiarities like high migrant population, the most significant number of elders and return of health workers, nurses and doctors from other parts would not give any lessons to others. They are Kerala-specific.

At another level, the management of health emergencies requires active collaboration by the population, which may be required to make unpleasant sacrifices. The government was able to force the people to make sacrifices.

However, the most significant handicap the state government faces now is the pandemic’s unprecedented fiscal crisis.

The state’s revenue has shrunk to one-tenth of the regular and overall revenues, including the central devolution, are insufficient to pay the monthly salaries.

Recovery from the pandemic would not be an easy one for Kerala. We do not know about the prevalence of the virus in the community that may lead to new clusters developing silently. 

Subscribe to Daily Newsletter :

SUPPORT US

We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.