The heat is on

if the weather is a favourite topic of discussion in England, the English have a lot to talk about. The climate is heating up and is adding unprecedented characteristics to the country's flora and fauna. Vineyards are being planted all over the uk , including the colder counties in the north such as Yorkshire. Scorpions, natives to warmer climes, are thriving in the southern county of Essex. And the conditions are ideal for mosquitoes to make a comeback and spread malaria, (which disappeared from the uk in the '20s) in the county of Kent ( Earthmatters , No 34, Summer 1997).

Reasons and consequences of climate change can easily be gauged in the flora and fauna. Scientists say that most plants and animals can adapt to a change of 1 c over a period of 100 years. Plants that have a widespread wind-blown seed distribution, such as dandelions, will migrate to the north to survive the increase in temperatures. But plants incapable of sending their seeds to a considerable distance and have long lives will be the victims of global warming. This would mean that the English Oak will disappear from the southern parts of England.

Similarly, animals that live on mountains and cannot adapt to rising temperatures would have to climb higher to survive. These include the mountain hare and the ptarmigan bird. Some effects of the rise in temperatures on animals are already noticeable in the uk . Frogs and toads have been laying eggs earlier than usual. Various studies indicate that birds are also laying eggs much earlier than in the past.

Over the last century, the global mean temperature has risen by 0.6 c . The rate of temperature increase is growing. In the next decade, it will increase by 0.2 c . Global warming is much easier to notice in a country like the uk that is known for a cold climate. It is not difficult for anyone who has experienced the British climate over the last three or four decades to observe the changes.

The year 1995 was the hottest the world has ever known. Scientists had said that it was a once-in-a-century event. But the Climate Change Unit at the University of East Anglia, uk , has estimated that that by the year 2050, summers with a severity similar to that of 1995 will occur once every three years on an average. The winter of 1988-89 was remarkably mild in the uk and averaged 2.4 c above normal. Calculations indicate that one in every four winters by 2050 will be similar to that of 1988-89. Such winters occur once in about 30 years at present.

Some historians indicate that climate changes are part of the Earth's natural cycle. They point out that the climate in the 14th century was warm enough to grow grapes in Edinburgh. This view is also supported by oil companies when they want to thwart any move by politicians to discourage the burning of fossil fuels that is responsible for producing carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that is the greatest contributor to global warming. But scientists say that the factor to be considered is not just the increase in temperature but also the rate of increase. And the rate has risen sharply over the last century.

The most palpable threat from global warming, however, is a rise in the sea level. The projected effects of global warming on the uk are not as severe as those for low-lying delta areas in countries such as Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, and Egypt, which would go under water. These areas are also the most productive agriculturally and are crucial to feeding these populous regions. Scientists also predict that most coral-based islands in the Pacific, such as the Maldives, will also be submerged by 2050 following a rise of about half a metre in the sea level. In Africa, the effects of global warming could mean aggravation of droughts and worsening of food crises.

In the uk , preparations are on to counter the rise in sea level. New regulations require that all new sea defences being built in eastern England have to be about 25 cm higher than earlier. Another interesting measure being adopted is known as the 'coastal retreat'. Under this, sea walls are being breached to let the sea back into reclaimed areas in East Anglia. New marshes are being created to serve as a soft buffer from the sea. The marshes take the energy out of the waves before they attack the new sea walls situated further inland. The buffer also serves as a habitat for wildlife.

The effects of global warming are not very clear as yet. But from the clues available around us, certain methods, such as those adopted in East Anglia, can be devised to anticipate the results of global warming and prepare ourselves.

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