COVID-19 now 2nd biggest cause of death in Africa: IHME

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged the second-biggest cause of death in Africa in a span of merely three weeks, according to a recent estimation carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

COVID-19 jumped to second position from the seventh position in the three weeks between June 29 and July 23, when the IHME came out with the estimation. It jumped to second position from the third position in one week between July 12 and July 23.

COVID-19 overtook lower respiratory infections (LRI) to be only behind neonatal disorders among leading causes of death on the continent.

COVID-19 caused 1,183 excess deaths per day, or 8,278 a week between June 22 and June 29, according to the IHME, an independent global health research centre at the University of Washington, United States.

It killed an average 1,978 people a day as on July 19, 2021. This is 13,485 excess deaths a week according to IHME.

In the last seven days (July 20-26, 2021), 890 deaths a day or 6,232 reported deaths a week have happened due to COVID-19 across Africa, according to the database, Our World in Data.

The estimated excess daily deaths are 2.9 times larger than reported daily deaths, according to IHME estimates. This means that 2,581 excess deaths a day or nearly 18,070 excess deaths a week have occurred across the continent due to COVID-19 in the last seven days.

Currently, 14,422 deaths take place every week, due to neonatal disorders, which rank as the leading cause of death in Africa.

It is likely that COVID-19 might soon replace neonatal disorders as the number one cause of death in Africa. 

Source: Our World in Data

There is more bad news for Africa. Some 28 African countries have an ‘R number’ greater than 1, according to the IHME.

‘R number’ means ‘reproduction number’ of COVID-19. An R value of 1 and above indicates exponential growth. So there is likely to be a further surge in COVID-19 cases in Africa and the Delta variant will be majorly responsible, according to IHME.

The Delta variant has already been confirmed in at least 21 African countries as of July 16, 2021, according the World Health Organization.

This surge will happen even as less than two per cent of Africa’s population has been vaccinated in at least 24 countries, according to the Africa Center for Disease Control as of July 27, 2021.

Just 1.6 per cent of the population in the region has been fully vaccinated according to Our World in Data.

The IHME has also warned that Africa may see 479,000 excess deaths by November 1. Of these, 168,000 deaths are likely to occur between July 19 and November 1.

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