Dry March: Is India looking at deficient pre-monsoon rain in 2022

India is again undergoing a huge deficit in pre-monsoon rainfall this year, three years after the last such development took place, a look at data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has shown.

A map of cumulative rainfall released by the IMD recently showed that large swathes of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat and North East India have received no rain at all in March 2022.

Even more shockingly, the hill regions of India including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have recorded ‘Deficient’ or ‘Large Deficient’ rains.

Districts such as Poonch (a departure of -23 per cent), Leh (-49 per cent), Tehri Garhwal (-48 per cent), West Sikkim (-56 per cent), South Sikkim (-33 per cent), East Kameng (-38 per cent) and East Siang (-35 per cent) recorded ‘deficient’ rainfall in the hills.

Baramulla (a departure of -17 per cent), Nainital (-12 per cent), North Sikkim (-8 per cent), East Sikkim (-10 per cent), Tawang (1 per cent), Papum Pare (-12 percent) and Upper Siang (-15 per cent) recorded ‘normal’ rainfall in the hills.

Cumulative rainfall in India from March 1, 2022 

‘Red’ represents ‘deficient’; 'Green’ represents ‘Normal’; ‘Yellow’ represents ‘Large Deficient’, ‘Light Blue’ represents ‘Excess’ and ‘Dark Blue’ represents ‘Large Excess’. Source: IMD

Echoes of 2019?

The low amount of rainfall this pre-monsoon is similar to 2019. The low pre-monsoon (March to May) rainfall that year was the lowest in the last five years and second lowest in last 65 years.

India had received 99 millimeters (mm) rainfall between March and May in 2019 — with 23 per cent below the normal rainfall during this time of the year.

The deficit was prevalent across the country with South India having a deficit of 47 per cent, followed by Northwest India (30 per cent), Central India (18 per cent), and East and Northeast (14 per cent).

All the sub divisions in peninsular India either had a deficit (20 to 59 per cent less than the normal rainfall) or large deficit (60 to 99 per cent less than the normal rainfall).

In the Central region, all sub divisions were either within normal or large deficit. In Maharashtra, all pockets of Vidarbha, Marathwada and Konkan had large deficit, according to Skymet Weather.

Pre-monsoon rains in 2015 was good, with lowest deficiency of 24 and 20 per cent in Nagaland and Mizoram respectively.

In 2016, Daman and Diu faced 94 per cent deficiency in pre-monsoon rainfall and Gujarat faced 91 per cent deficiency. In 2017, the deficiency reached 100 per cent and 97 per cent in Daman and Diu and Gujarat respectively.

However, ‪Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of Meteorology, IMD, said the scenarios of 2019 and 2022 could not be compared.

“Yes, there has been deficient rainfall in the month of March. But you cannot compare this and 2019. The normal rainfall in the month of March is only 25 millimetres. The fact is India does not experience much rainfall activity during March.

“On the North East, the southern peninsula and Jammu and Kashmir (because of western disturbance) get rainfall in March. This year, rainfall activity over North East India has been less. Or rather it started late, just last week. Hence, there was less rain. In northwest India, it rains in March only when there are western disturbances, which did not occur this time.  Hence no rains,” he told Down To Earth.

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