Measures that would keep the virus away are still not clear
A lower level of infection in Kerala means that a larger proportion of the population has remained susceptible. Representative photo: Vikas Choudhary This story has been updated August 30, 2021 to correct data errors and conclusions drawn from them.
Kerala has always been a model state when it comes controlling the spread of infectious diseases. In 2018, the strong surveillance as well as healthcare systems managed to catch and curb the spread of Nipah virus. But this may have been also why the state is now struggling with the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
Here’s what happened.
The first case of COVID-19 in the country was identified in Kerala and the state immediately set its disease control system in motion. It was effective in controlling the disease to a large extent.
On January 16, 2021, when the country began its vaccination drive, only 2.5 per cent of the population had been infected. This was much lower than the national figure of 0.8 per cent of the population.
But a lower level of infection also means that a larger proportion of the population has remained susceptible. There are two ways to tackle the virus: Gaining immunity either by being exposed to the virus or through vaccination.
As of August 4, 2021, 9.78 per cent of Kerala’s population has been infected and 41.7 per cent is vaccinated. This is, however, better than the national figures of 2.6 per cent infected and 28.6 per cent vaccinated.
This suggests about half of Kerala’s population is immune. There would be overlaps with the infected people getting the vaccines but this provides a ballpark figure. The answer to who did better lies in the death statistics. While 0.048 per cent of the population died of the disease in Kerala, the figure for India was 0.03.
While this does suggest that Kerala’s method of keeping infection rates low did not work well, there are few things to keep in mind before jumping to this conclusion. For one, Kerala’s population is ageing and older people are more at risk of death.
Second, the state has a better health system, which means that they catch more COVID-19 deaths than other states.
A central team recently visited Kerala to take a stock of the situation and recommend action. Lack of active surveillance and low level of contact tracing was the reason behind the recent surge, they found.
Whatever the reasons, the path ahead needs to be clearly marked and followed. India’s trajectory from now will, and should, depend on how quickly vaccination is carried out. Though herd immunity seems to have become a forgotten concept, it was earlier believed that the pandemic would be under control if 60-70 per cent of the population was immune.
Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya tweeted August 4: “I have sought the state’s cooperation in managing the situation and have assured the central government’s complete support.”
Kerala has decided to use lockdown to avert further worsening of situation.
While the state will remain under lockdown on Sunday, markets will be open on August 15 and August 22 because of Independence Day and Onam. There will be a complete lockdown in Kerala on August 8.
The state had put similar lockdowns and restrictions in place since the beginning of the pandemic. Relaxations for elections and religious meetings continued to contribute to surges.
What needs to be kept in mind is the fact that the virus is ingenious. The constantly mutating virus can easily impact the rate of incidence. Israel, which vaccinated a majority of its population, too is seeing a surge in cases due to the delta variant of the virus.
While 64 per cent of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, 59 per cent are fully vaccinated. The state is planning to reinforce wearing of masks in social gatherings, work from home and travel guidelines to avoid lockdown.
The United States too recently changed its guidelines on the use of masks. In May, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had advised that fully vaccinated people could resume normal activities without bothering about masks and social distancing. The CDC has now changed the guidelines in areas which are reporting high numbers of cases.
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