Crowded house

Published: Saturday 28 February 1998

the population division of the United Nations' (un) economic and social affairs department has recently predicted that the world population may reach nearly 9.4 billion by the year 2050 and stabilise at about 11 billion by 2200. During 1995, the world population was 5.7 billion. Under a medium fertility scenario of two children per woman as a replacement level, the Earth will have 9.4 billion people in 2050.

The study reveals that by the year 2100, Earth's population would reach the 10.4 billion mark and the 10.8 billion mark by 2,150 before stabilising at about 11 billion by 2200.

The department is responsible for studying and promoting improvements in the living standards. The medium fertility rate is based on the two-children-per-woman scenario.If the rate differs by even one child on the low or high end, or half a child above or below replacement levels, other projections are possible and the world population, too, would vary consequently.

At the high end of the projection, the world would have 11.2 billion people by 2050, 17.5 billion by 2100 and 27 billion by 2150. At the low end, there would be 7.7 billion by 2050 and the growth would decline to 5.6 billion by 2100 and fall to 3.6 billion by 2150.

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