Delayed warning

 
Published: Sunday 15 November 1992

Can earthquakes be forecast? After investing one billion dollars in a 30-year earthquake prediction programme, Japanese scientists have virtually admitted failure (Nature, Vol 358 No 6835).

A recent review of the programme by Japanese officials indicated several abnormal phenomena could not be objectively identified as quake precursors. For instance, earthquake swarms around the city of Ito in 1989 were believed to be caused by plate tectonic movement. Although there were reports of discolouration of the sea and floating dead fish, scientists were unable to predict a major submarine volcanic eruption was to take place until a few hours before it did.

Nonetheless, most Japanese believe the next major earthquake can be predicted, and researchers capitalise on this belief. The Japanese are worried that a major earthquake could bring Tokyo (and share markets across the world) crumbling down.

Subscribe to Daily Newsletter :

Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.