Impacts of El Nino will be more pronounced in poor countries in the tropics like India
El Niño events tend to be much larger and more intense than La Niña events. In picture, an El Nino rainstorm approaches San Clemente Beach in California, US in December 2015. Photo: iStock El Nino, a climate pattern predicted to strike in 2023, is estimated to cost the world $3 trillion in losses by 2029, a new study estimated. The losses can go up to $84 trillion from 2020-2099, according to the paper published in Science journal.
El Nino and La Nina are the warm and cool phases of a climate pattern across the tropical Pacific called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The three-year run of La Nina ended this year and ENSO-neutral has set in. There is a 90 per cent of an El Nino this winter, according to the United States agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Read more: Black Summer: Australian wildfires linked to La Nina’s three-year streak, finds study
“We have known for decades that El Nino is an incredibly important Earth system phenomenon, affecting weather around the globe and even shaping variation in global mean temperature. But the full economic impacts of El Nino have not been fully examined,” Christopher W Callaha, a PhD scholar at Dartmouth, told Down To Earth.
The researchers used a model to estimate the national gross domestic product per capita from 1960-2019. The model compares economic growth before and after El Nino events to assess cumulative impacts.
They also used a model to project how future El Nino events impacts global economy. A slow economic growth for more than five years occurred after the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino.
The losses were $4.1 trillion in five years after 1982-83 event and $5.7 trillion following the 1997-98 event.
Unlike El Nino, La Nina is linked with some economic benefits. “However, these benefits are generally small and highly uncertain, in contrast to the major losses from El Nino,” Callaha explained.
El Nino events, he added, tend to be much larger and more intense than La Nina events.
In India, the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino events cost roughly 3 per cent and 1.5 per cent of the country’s GDP per capita, respectively.
“These results indicate that, along with many other countries, India is more vulnerable to climate variability than we realised, even independent of climate change,” Callaha explained.
The impacts will be more pronounced in poor countries in the tropics.
Further, countries that witness wetting and drying during El Nino will see persistent losses as anomalously high and low rainfall can lead to damages, the researchers wrote in their study.
Lower-emitting countries have not historically contributed to climate change. But they will bear a higher economic burden.
So major emitters like the United States and Europe should finance adaptation in affected tropical regions. Callaha explained.
As climate change could intensify El Nino, the researcher stresses that high-income countries should cut their emissions.
The researchers plan to further understand how climate change will affect El Nino and the Pacific Ocean more broadly.
“We can say with confidence that if climate change amplifies El Nino, there will be economic losses globally, but it remains to be seen whether this amplification will occur and what its magnitude might be,” Callaha said.
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
.png)
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.