EU's tragic flaw

fresh data released by the European Environment Agency (eea) indicate that meeting greenhouse gas (ghg) emission cuts set by the Kyoto Protocol (kp), the global treaty to fight climate change, might be an uphill task for the European Union (eu) nations. Their ghg emissions rose by 1.3 per cent from 2002 to 2003, as they released an extra 53 million tonnes of these harmful gases. This marked a disappointing turnaround, as ghg levels had fallen 0.5 per cent in 2002, compared to 2001. Under kp, the eu nations have to reduce eight per cent of their 1990 emission levels by 2012.

The release of the eea report on June 21, 2005, spells more trouble for the eu. Its 2003 emissions were just 1.7 per cent lower than the 1990 levels; the average reduction in the five-year period (1999-2003) was 2.9 per cent of the base level. International environmental group Friends of the Earth (foe) estimates that the emissions should have dropped by 5.2 per cent in 2003. "The figures are shocking, as they indicate that Europe may not meet its obligation to limit climate change," said foe Europe's Jan Kowalzig. "The blame goes mostly to national economy and industry ministers, who block any attempts to introduce mandatory targets for renewable energies, energy efficiency rules or fuel consumption standards for cars."

Poor defence The emission hike is believed to have been triggered mainly by the greater use of power from coal-fired power stations: 2003 witnessed a five per cent increase in electricity generation from such plants by the 15 pre-2004 eu member states. "It is difficult to say whether this rise will be repeated in more recent or future emissions," says Andreas Barkman of eea , the report's co-author. But European commissioner for environment Stavros Dimas prefers to believe the outpour was triggered by a more temporary factor: "The increase is partly due to the weather -- there was an unusually cold start to 2003, and a heatwave hit much of continental Europe during the summer, probably increasing use of air conditioning." He also holds that the trend would not sustain: "These figures are disappointing and further reinforce the need for member states to implement their emission-reduction actions. But with the introduction of carbon trading system we would be able to meet our Kyoto targets."

Experts, however, deem blaming the weather a mere escape hatch. Paul Wapner, associate professor, School of International Service, American University, usa, points out that the increase reflects how the North is addicted to carbon-based fuels. "Experiments around the world demonstrate that there is a future to energy production beyond fossil fuels and countries need to undertake war-like campaigns to shift toward such a future." But this may be a distant dream: imports of hard coal (anthracite) by the eu nations increased to 190,559 kilotonnes (kt) in 2003 from 127,501 kt in 1990. Similarly, the thermal electricity generation capacity rose by 10 gigawatts in the period.

Distressing future The bad news doesn't end here. The Clean Coal Centre (ccc) of the International Energy Agency, an inter-governmental body, says the eu's coal consumption for energy generation ought to have risen further post-May 2004, when 10 more countries joined the bloc. More members mean a drastic increase in the eu's coal reserves: from nearly 72 gt to less than 100 gt . Further, an analysis of responses from national energy authorities confirms that coal would remain a primary source of energy for them for at least some more years, the ccc adds.

Experts believe the eea's report can have significant political consequences. By reflecting the impossibility of achieving kp targets, the data might be used by the us in support of its decision to not ratify the treaty . "Even if all parties comply with Kyoto, its stipulations are inadequate to stabilise climate. But the trouble is most states are not on track even to fulfil these meagre commitments. The increased emissions of the eu underline the dilemma. As European countries are urging the us to join Kyoto, they themselves are not likely to fulfil their commitments under the treaty. European states should recognise this predicament and face up to the challenge of climate change," suggests Wapner. On the other hand, the report might also pressure uk prime minister Tony Blair and other leaders of rich nations meeting for the g8 summit from July 6-8, 2005, to get down to real action.

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