Monsoonal rains in the national capital are to begin only by July 12 — 12 days later than the normal date of June 30
The monsoon has already set in over some parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 19, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Earlier this week, IMD, along with other experts, had already predicted a delayed onset of the southwest monsoon season over Kerala. Even after the season begins, the movement of the monsoon winds would be sluggish with intermittent rains. The rainfall intensity over large parts of the country would also be below normal, said experts.
“The current forecast suggests that after a delayed onset over Kerala, the monsoon is expected to progress at its normal pace along the western coast of India,” said Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, the UK.
Deoras told Down To Earth:
However, the progression of the Bay of Bengal branch could remain relatively slow in the initial period. As a result, the overall monsoon rainfall activity in India in the first fortnight of June is expected to remain subdued.
The monsoon trough forms a little south of the equator in the region off the coast of Somalia due to the convergence of winds from the east and the west, known as the intertropical convergence zone. This trough is then deflected north of the equator, and moisture is transported first towards the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Then it gradually moves towards mainland India, striking Kerala around June 1.
Other experts also forecast the monsoon winds to arrive much later than normal in the other regions of India. The rains, in the beginning, are also predicted to be intermittent. Continuous monsoon rainfall would occur over central India only around June 26, according to Elena Surovyatkina, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
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“With the purpose of assisting farmers in planning their agriculture cycle, I am conducting a second-year experiment by providing detailed information about the monsoon onset forecast. This includes estimations for intermittent rain periods, dry spells, and the beginning of persistent rains. By knowing where and when the monsoon starts, as well as if there will be a dry spell after the initial rain, farmers can make informed decisions about planting at the appropriate time,” Surovyatkina added.
While intermittent rains would happen around June 15, there would be a dry period till June 26, she said. The normal date for the onset of monsoon over central India is between June 10 and June 15. In north Telangana, rains would begin around June 19, after which there would be a brief lull till June 24. After this, monsoon rains would begin in earnest for the region.
The worst is the forecast for Delhi. Monsoonal rains are to begin only by July 12 — 12 days later than the normal date of June 30. The rainfall intensity over these regions would also be lower than normal in June and the rest of the season.
“Many states in central and eastern India are expected to receive below average rainfall along with above normal maximum temperatures in June,” said Deoras.
In contrast, the west coast of India can get average to above average rainfall in the month. Over northwestern India, models are suggesting average to below average rainfall, he added.
“The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall is expected to be similar to that in June. Except for the western coastline, other parts of India are expected to witness rainfall deficits, which could be the largest in central India,” said Deoras.
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