India to receive less rainfall, strong El Nino predicted

North-west India will be worst sufferer; IMD forecast says the region will receive only 85 per cent of normal rains

By Jyotsna Singh
Published: Tuesday 10 June 2014

Several El Nino years have coincided with droughts in India

In its long range forecast, released Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) maintained its earlier analysis of April that rainfall will be below average in 2014. It also said that El Nino  will remain this year.

According to IMD, rainfall for the country as a whole June to September is likely to be between 90-96 per cent of the long period average (LPA). North-west India will be the worst sufferer with only 85 per cent rains compared to what it receives normally. North-east India will get the highest share at 99 per cent of the LPA.

Central India is expected to receive 94 per cent while south peninsula, comprising Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, will get 93 per cent of the average.

The overall rainfall for the country in July is predicted to be 93 per cent of its LPA and 96 per cent during August.

The chance of El Nino occurring during monsoon is pegged at over 70 per cent. It is expected to affect Indian monsoon strongly due to absence of a counter effect of Indian Ocean Dipole. IOD is a climatic condition that occurs in the Indian Ocean. Its interaction with El Nino decides the fate of the monsoon in the given year.

Read more about El Nino and Indian monsoon

El Nino may hit monsoon this year
The company El Nino keeps 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), weather agency of the United States, too, has predicted a strong El Nino. The agency said on June 5 that the chance of El Niño is 70 per cent during the Northern Hemisphere summer and would reach 80 per cent during winter.

Feature: El Niño and the summer monsoon of 2014

Report: Seasonal climate outlook for South Asia (April to July 2014)

Research: Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Research: Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon

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