North-west India will be worst sufferer; IMD forecast says the region will receive only 85 per cent of normal rains
In its long range forecast, released Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) maintained its earlier analysis of April that rainfall will be below average in 2014. It also said that El Nino will remain this year.
According to IMD, rainfall for the country as a whole June to September is likely to be between 90-96 per cent of the long period average (LPA). North-west India will be the worst sufferer with only 85 per cent rains compared to what it receives normally. North-east India will get the highest share at 99 per cent of the LPA.
Central India is expected to receive 94 per cent while south peninsula, comprising Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, will get 93 per cent of the average.
The overall rainfall for the country in July is predicted to be 93 per cent of its LPA and 96 per cent during August.
The chance of El Nino occurring during monsoon is pegged at over 70 per cent. It is expected to affect Indian monsoon strongly due to absence of a counter effect of Indian Ocean Dipole. IOD is a climatic condition that occurs in the Indian Ocean. Its interaction with El Nino decides the fate of the monsoon in the given year.
Read more about El Nino and Indian monsoon
El Nino may hit monsoon this year
The company El Nino keeps
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), weather agency of the United States, too, has predicted a strong El Nino. The agency said on June 5 that the chance of El Niño is 70 per cent during the Northern Hemisphere summer and would reach 80 per cent during winter.
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.