China and India might be some of the countries where the green transition may also be slowed down because Russia would shift their energy exports to them, experts say
A coal mine in Jharia. Photo: iStock_ India used 13 per cent more coal to generate electricity in 2021 than the previous year, given the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This figure is going to increase in the future, given the current global scenario and will delay India’s efforts to reach its climate goals, according to experts.
India’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2021 soared to 80 megatonnes (Mt) above pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the report found. A slump in the renewable energy sector could partly explain this spike. Growth in this sector slowed to a third of its average rate of the previous five years.
Commodity prices are on a high. This has increased the cost of producing solar photovoltaic modules, wind turbines and biofuels, according to the IEA report.
Globally, a similar pattern played out in 2021. CO2 emissions rose six per cent to 36.3 billion tonnes last year. Thirty-three per cent of these can be traced back to China.
CO2 emissions worldwide dropped in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as countries announced strict lockdowns to control the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Emissions globally dropped to 5.4 per cent in 2020, compared to the previous year. The shutdown hurt economies worldwide.
However, countries bounced back in the following months by heavily relying on coal. China’s CO2 emissions increased 750 Mt between 2019 and 2021, offsetting the aggregate decline in the rest of the world (570 Mt) during the same period, the IEA report stated.
China’s huge electricity demand, which jumped to 10 per cent in 2021, drove this increase.
Though renewable-based electricity accounted for 28 per cent of total generation in the country, it still fell short. So, China turned to coal to fill 56 per cent of the electricity demand rise.
The increase in CO2 emissions in 2021 offsets the decline recorded during COVID-19, Kaushik Deb, senior research scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, told Down To Earth.
“So, we are nowhere close to any version of the world that is compatible with a 1.5-degree scenario,” Deb added.
Global patterns
Global methane levels went up five per cent in 2021, but were still lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to the IEA report. The overall greenhouse gas emissions reached 40.8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2021, above the previous all-time high in 2019.
CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial process accounted for close to 89 per cent of energy sector greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. Gas flaring accounted for another 0.7 per cent of CO2 emissions.
The United States and many European countries switched to coal from gas, adding roughly 250 Mt of CO2 in 2021. The costs of operating existing coal plants were considerably cheaper than that of gas-fired power plants for most of 2021.
However, advanced countries kept their CO2 emissions under check even as their battered economies returned to the pre-pandemic state.
In 2021, CO2 emissions in the United States were four per cent below their 2019 level and 2.4 per cent lower in the European Union. Japan’s emissions, however, rebounded by less than one per cent.
“Across advanced economies overall, structural changes such as increased uptake of renewables, electrification and energy efficiency improvements avoided an additional 100 Mt of CO2 emissions in 2021, compared with 2020,” the report read.
Still, per capita emissions of advanced countries were higher. It was 14 tonnes in the United States, 8.4 tonnes in China, six tonnes in the European Union, 3.2 tonnes in Mexico and 2.34 tonnes in emerging markets and developing economies.
“China and India might be some of the countries where the green transition may also be slowed down because Russia would shift their energy exports to them (if they are not sanctioned for buying Russian oil/gas),” Rasmus Grand Berthelsen, project manager at Rasmussen Global, a political consultancy firm, told DTE.
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