It's too darned hot!

THE year 1995 has become an ecological benchmark: it has earned the uneasy distinction of having become the hottest year globally, since records of global temperatures were first maintained after 1856. Preliminary reports front the British Meteorological Office arid the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, indicate that it pipped the year 1990, the earlier record holder, to the second place by 0.05^oC, to finish at an average of 14.8^oC.

The increasing heat has finally made the people who matter sit Lip and take notice. The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises world governments on climate policy decisions, has accepted what was being hollered all along by the scientists that - global warming is a definite threat which is on course. Apart hoot the British tracking down the Surface temperatures across the globe, studies were also conducted at the National Aeronautics arid Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

British data goes on a continuous to reveal that the earth has been oil on heating spree. Reportedly, the 1995 record is 0.4^oC warmer than the average for the period 1961 to 1990 arid 0.8^oC warmer than the period front 1861 to 1890. This is in spite of the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, which sent a cloud of particles into the stratosphere that served to shield the earth from solar radiation for nearlv two years arid also brought about a significant cooling of the earth's temperatures during the period.

According to James Hansen, director of the Goddard Centre, the global warming trend is a result of human influence. The IPCC report, which was the first full assessment of global warming for five years, also attributed the continuing and accelerating warming trends to human activity - specifically, the emission of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, which is released by the burning of fossil fuels. It concluded that the observed warming is "unlikely to be entire natural in origin", and evidence "suggests a discernible human influence on climate". Hansen adds that the 1995 figure is more remarkable because it was established at a time when two natural warming influences were neutralised: the solar energy cycle was at a low ebb and the warming effect of El Nino, file pool of warm Pacific water that appeared in early 1995, was offset by a turn to cooler-than-normal conditions in the tropical Pacific later in the year.

Tom M L Wigley, a member of a sub-committee of the United Nations panel that specifically deals with the inter-relationship between human-made activities and global warming, says that the 1995 heat record and the warm temperatures throughout the early '90s are "consistent with the sort of expectation we have of the interplay between natural and human-made influences".

Satellite data, which generally does not display temperature increase in the atmosphere, has now thrown up mounting evidences of higher warmth. In fact, until now sceptics of global warming often took recourse to the absence of satellite data to match the statements of the scientists. The data maintained by john Christy of the University of Alabama and Roy Spencer of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Centre in the US, for the past 17 years reveal that the past year has been a rather warm one. August 1995 was reportedly the warmest August in all the years of satellite data maintenance. The rate of warming measured Font the satellites has begun to move into the range scientists expect to result front human caused warming, according to Christy.

The cry of global warming, which has until now been the refrain of vat ous eco-groups arid scientists worldwide, has suddenly assumed greater significance. What were predictions earlier are taking a sharp and definite turn towards reality. Climate change has even affected a change in policies. For instance, the recent follow-up convention of the Montreal Protocol called for the phase- outs of ozone depicting substances and also advocated major cuts in the emissions of greenhouse gases from both the industrialised arid developing nations.

The scenario of increasing temperatures is indeed brightening. It is believed that the mercury will inch up by a further 1.8 to 6.3 degrees, with an average of 3.6, degrees, by the year 2100. This could unleash a series of catastrophic "floods, droughts, fires and pest Out- breaks", according to the IPCC report. Adding to the complication is the latest finding of the Australia-based Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Trevor McDougall and his colleagues front CSIRO say that the capacity of the occans to absorb heat as per computer models are more of an overstatement. Apparently, the models used to compute the depth to which surface waters mix with the deeper ocean are misleading. McDougall's results show that the capacity of the oceans to absorb heat is only half of that predicted by the computer models. This would mean that the temperature rise in the Southern Hemisphere of the globe would be on par with that of its counterpart in the North, unlike what was believed earlier.

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