Rainfall will be termed normal but India will experience less rainfall during southwest monsoon than it used to a decade ago
The southwest monsoon this year will be normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said May 31, 2022 in its updated long-range forecast for the monsoon season 2022 (June-September).
“Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96-104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” said IMD in a statement. The Long Range Average is 87 centimetres based on the data of 1971-2020.
Earlier, Down To Earth reported the change in India’s average rainfall base. In April, India had “a new rainfall normal figure, according to which the normal mean rainfall during the crucial southwest monsoon season of June-September has decreased by 12 mm for the country.”
IMD, in its first forecast for the 2022 southwest monsoon rainfall, announced April 14 that the newly introduced new rainfall normal figure of 868.6 mm is based on 1971-2020 data. It replaces the earlier normal of 880.6 mm based on the data of 1961-2010, the IMD said.
This essentially means that while the rainfall according to the new figures will be termed ‘normal’, the country will experience less rainfall during the southwest monsoon than it used to a decade ago.
According to the updated forecast, the parts of northeast, Kerala, Odisha and West Bengal will have below-normal rainfall (</- 90 and <96 per cent of LPA). “Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially, with most parts of the country expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except some parts of eastcentral, east, northeast and extreme southwest peninsular India, where it is likely to be below normal,” said IMD.
“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be above normal for central India (>106 per cent of LPA) and South Peninsula (>106 per cent of LPA). Rainfall is most likely to be normal over northeast India (96-106 per cent of LPA) and northwest India (92-108 per cent of LPA),” said the forecast.
The first month of the season — June — will have above-normal rainfall. But many parts of the northeastern states, a few areas in the peninsular, central and eastern India will have below-normal rainfall this month.
It seems that eastern India — Odisha and West Bengal particularly — will continue to register below-normal rainfall from the beginning of the season to the end.
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