Normal heat wave-like conditions will prevail over the country’s core heat wave zone, which includes northern and central India
North and northwest India are expected to face a more scorching summer this year, according to the seasonal outlook for the hot weather season (April to June), 2018, released by the India Meteorological Department on April 1. “Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to prevail in most of the subdivisions with maximum anomalies in subdivisions from northwest India and north India,” the seasonal outlook suggests.
Maximum temperature anomaly
According to IMD, seasonal average maximum temperatures could be warmer than normal by ≥1 °C in Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh. Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab could see average maximum temperatures reaching 1.25°C and 1.22°C above normal respectively. While other subdivisions are likely to experience near normal (between 0.5°C and -0.5°C) maximum temperature anomalies, states such as Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh will witness 0.5°C and 1°C higher than normal temperatures.
Minimum temperature anomaly
When it comes to minimum temperature, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan will see average minimum temperatures warmer than normal by ≥1°C. Punjab and Haryana, especially, could see average temperatures more than 1.49°C and 1.54°C above normal. They are likely to be between 0.5°C and 1°C in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Central Maharashtra, and Saurashtra and Gujarat.
For both maximum and minimum temperature, normal to slightly below normal temperatures are likely to prevail in eastern, east central and southern parts of the country.
The IMD outlook also claims that normal heat wave (HW) conditions are likely over core heat wave zone of the country, which include Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
La Nina and Indian monsoon
Although IMD did not give a clear indication of normal monsoon this year, it did mention that the current sea surface temperature conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific suggest prevalence of La Niña conditions. This meteorological condition favours monsoon in India. “The latest forecast from MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System) indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least during the forecast period (April to June),” states the outlook summary.
It also observes that forecasts from global climate centres indicate weakening of La Nina conditions from spring season onwards.
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