Only a combination of existing policies along with new ones can arrest the trend & slow consumption
Photo: iStock The plastic consumption across G20 countries is expected to nearly double by 2050, according to a new report.
The volume of plastic consumed across the G20 countries will grow to 451 million tonnes by 2050 from 261 million tonnes in 2019, the report Peak Plastics: Bending the Consumption Curve published February 26, 2023 showed.
The report is the first study to forensically model the potential impact of policies being considered by the United Nations plastic treaty negotiators. It was done by the Back to Blue, an initiative by the Economist Impact, a cross-sectoral initiative spearheaded by the publication The Economist, and the Nippon Foundation, a private philanthropic organisation.
The report examined the potential impact of three key policies that cover the entire lifecycle of plastic, from production to disposal.
These three policy levers — a ban on problematic single-use plastic, a polluter pays extended producer responsibility scheme for full end-of-life costs and a tax on virgin plastic production — all fail to prevent a relentless rise in plastic consumption, Economist Impact found.
Only a combination of these policies and bolder action, including possible restrictions on virgin plastic production, will bring about peak plastic and see consumption slow in the future, stated the report.
The researchers described peak plastic consumption as the point and volume at which global plastic consumption stops growing and begins to recede.
This report’s analysis is based on a model that examines whether and when each of the policy approaches can bring about a peak of global plastic consumption growth.
The analysis is focused on the 19 countries of the G20 — Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
A global ban on unnecessary single-use plastic items will be the most effective policy, according to the report.
South Korea was the first to do so nationally for selected products in 2019, later expanding the ban to other items. France, Germany, Italy, Canada, China and India have also imposed nationwide bans.
Even with a single-use plastic ban in place, the report projected plastic consumption across G20 countries will still be 1.48 times higher in 2050 compared with 2019.
G20 countries that are yet to introduce national bans on single-use plastic products are Brazil, the United States, Indonesia and Turkey, the report said.
The report warned extended producer responsibility schemes will have a minimal effect on the consumption of single-use plastic products, but adds it is still a vital part of the solution.
If extended producer responsibility schemes become mandatory in the countries in focus, plastic consumption will rise to 434 million tonnes (mt) in 2050, which is 1.66 times higher than 2019.
The impact of a tax on virgin plastic resin will be limited and will still see consumption rise by 1.57 times by 2050, the modelling study showed.
Taxes upstream would have a greater impact on plastic consumption growth in the G20 countries than an extended producer responsibility mandate, but less than a ban on single-use plastic products.
A combination of all three scenarios still leaves plastic consumption rising, although at a slightly slower pace — 1.25 times higher in 2050 over 2019 levels.
Only bold and sweeping reforms will bend the plastic consumption curve, the authors noted. Achieving a reduction in plastic pollution will require all stakeholders — from the petrochemical companies to the consumers to control the crisis, they wrote.
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
.png)
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.