El Ninos are generally linked with poor southwest monsoon rains across India as observed in previous El Nino years of 2009, 2014, 2015 and 2018
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that El Nino conditions will likely begin in the middle of 2023. In an update March 9, 2023, NOAA predicted that El Nino could arrive as early as July or August 2023.
La Nina and El Nino together form a climate cycle that has an immense impact on weather and ocean conditions across the globe.
During El Nino, the waters in the east and central equatorial Pacific experience abnormal warming which is the opposite of La Nina where the region experiences anomalous cooling.
Together, these two phenomena affect ocean currents, fish populations and wind flows. They also often result in more rainfall in some parts of the world while triggering droughts in others.
The US agencies have noted that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming up slowly and the Nino region indices are returning to neutral status marking the end of La Nina years.
The trend has been that each phase is observed by a year or two of neutral conditions before the next one begins. But this year the three-year-long La Nina is expected to be quickly followed by El Nino.
The beginning of the El Nino is a harbinger of bad news for India’s agriculture. El Ninos are generally linked with poor southwest monsoon rains across India as observed in previous El Nino years of 2009, 2014, 2015 and 2018.
The poor monsoons due to El Nino will also impact India’s Kharif crop output and agriculture sector. Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to provide an official update about this projected transition. The NOAA seems sure that El Nino will likely arrive by mid-2023.
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