Swine flu grips India tighter and tighter

The number cases of the disease have crossed 6,700-mark this year in the country

Rise and fall of the disease

According to Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP), 14,992 people contracted swine flu in 2018 and 1,103 of them died. In 2017, the number of cases stood at 38,811 and of them, 2,270 died.

Did you know?
In 2016, India recorded the highest number of H1N1 cases and deaths. The total number of people who were tested was 42,592 and of them, 2,992 died.

Swine flu was first reported in humans in India in 2009. Confusion and lack of information about the disease is believed to have suppressed the official figures of incidence and only 600 deaths were officially reported despite suspected cases popping up from across the country. In 2010, more than 20,000 cases were confirmed, of which 1,763 resulted in deaths.

In 2015, India had its worst tangle with the disease yet (2010-19) as — 137,323 cases and 10,614 deaths were reported nationwide. Maharashtra (26,689 cases, 3,183 deaths), Gujarat (21,298 cases, 1,798 deaths), Rajasthan (18,330 cases, 1,523 deaths), Madhya Pradesh (4,127 cases, 751 deaths), Karnataka (12,915 cases, 409 deaths) and Delhi (12,928 cases, 134 deaths) were the worst-hit states. The situation improved drastically in 2016 with just 1,786 cases and 265 deaths registered. This year, so far, seems to be a repeat of 2015, the hotspots, concentrated in Western India, too are reminiscent of India’s worst experience with the disease.

Climate connection

According to Dr Pradeep Awate, director, epidemiology, Maharashtra health department, and infectious diseases expert, climate change causes difficulty in controlling the disease. "Due to less rain and more wind, we saw the virus spread quickly. Hence, this year, due to unexpected climate changes, we still kept seeing a rise in positive cases of this virus," Awate told the media. Keeping in mind the current conditions, this could rise further.

Did you know? India has had its worst tangle with the disease in the past decade (2009-19) with 137,323 cases being registered and 10,614 people dying of the disease.

In fact, long-term climate change might have an impact on the spread of H1N1 virus in a unique way. Winters are bound to be warmer than usual due to global warming like the current season. This will reduce the spread of the virus in these months to some extent. But it will make people more vulnerable to the virus just after the cold season ends. This would require states to be ready to anticipate and tackle the spread of the disease.