Africa’s climate adaptation: Madagascar’s coastal villages battle climate crisis with homegrown early warning system

People living in Madagascar’s coastal areas face multiple challenges daily due to lack of meteorological information. This knowledge gap has left some villages with very few men, as most of the traditional male fishers continue to die at sea.

A single coastal village might simultaneously lose many fishers, leaving numerous children orphaned and only a handful of women married in the areas most susceptible to disasters. Eventually, these children grow up to become fishermen themselves, perpetuating the cycle. In the country, women and children are the most vulnerable.

The poor communication of such vital information also creates a spiral of poverty and ecological destruction that they are unable to avoid. But there are solutions that local innovators are exploring.

“The situation is common in the south-eastern and southern coasts of the island, and we have to find solutions,” said Toky Hasina Sylverster, an oceanographer and president of the south-eastern regional capital Taolagnaro-based NGO Aquatic Service, at the second National Forum of Civil Society Organisations, held in Antananarivo from July 3-5, 2025.

In 2009, Sylverster co-founded Mitao Forecast Africa, an early warning system innovation meant to make realistic and simple climate information — derived from complex science-based evidence — available even to illiterate residents. “My relatives from my grandmother on my paternal side — all fishers — are victims as well,” he said.

The innovation, which was shortlisted for the 2025 Sasakawa Award organised by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction — as the sole representative of the entire African continent — is part of efforts to reduce community vulnerability and to empower people.

After years of trials at small scale, its large-scale use started in 2014. There are currently around 750,000 users across the country, and their number is expected to grow further in the future. Some African coastal countries are set to import the Malagasy innovation.

The Mitao Forecast is a last-kilometre solution that uses satellite meteorological data. The process relies on software using artificial intelligence to convert complex evidence into simple, useful information that is valid for four days for any geographic point, with accurate Global Positioning System coordinates.

It is up to community relays in the villages, serving as local focal points, to timely forward the produced SMS to any phone numbers on their registers. “They also have the responsibility to display coloured-code tokens — green, yellow, orange, red — on the bulletin boards which the users constantly consult. Green means safe climate conditions, while red indicates total interdiction,” explained Sylverster.

The alert system is not only a life-saving tool but also a financial planning tool for poor households. “It helps the fishermen’s wives to manage their revenue well. When their husbands gain Ar100,000, for example, and they are aware of bad meteorological patterns for the next two or three days, they can manage their income accordingly to avoid eventual paucity. Previously, they tended to spend the whole sum as soon as they earned it,” the expert affirmed.

The innovation also benefits fish collectors. “It allows them to decide whether it is necessary to go into the field with amounts of money and ice to secure the products,” he added.

Better still, the Mitao Forecast innovation appears to be a realistic tool for income-generating activities and conservation management. Data collected from sites across the territory, stored in databases, help communities plan timely activities. By studying historical data regarding an area, for example, users become aware of any changes over time and can adjust their interventions accordingly.

The case of mangrove forests is often cited in relation to coastal life. People are tempted to chop down trees in these fragile ecosystems when they have nothing to eat. “They might find other income-generating activities when they are informed of what happened in the past through the forecast system. So the tool is not only profitable for income management but also helps decrease the pressures on natural resources,” Sylverster said.

The alert tool is also useful in other coastal areas where sea-related ecotourism activities flourish. Diving and snorkelling have fans in various sites. In particular, in Sainte-Marie, in the north-east, whale watching attracts many nature lovers from across the globe from June to September.

“It is always essential to check accurate information about climatic conditions when planning outings at sea. Sometimes, the winds suddenly worsen, risking the safety of clients, who might refrain from taking part in the future,” observed the informant. The innovative tool indeed has a wide range of possible applications for community adaptation needs.

Extreme events like powerful storms, inundations, and persistent drought constantly affect regions of Madagascar. “Drought also hits other regions, while only those in the South have been prone to it so far,” Mamiarisoa Anzèla Ramarosandratana, head of the climate adaptation section within the meteorology department, said.

Desertification and land degradation now affect thirteen of the twenty-three existing regions in Madagascar. Epidemics and locust infestations are also reported from time to time. In recent years, huge fires — like those reported in developed countries — have destroyed forests, protected areas, crops, and houses, and have killed people and animals. In 2024 alone, fires burned nearly 6.3 million hectares of land across the island.

Participants at Antananarivo’s Forum in early July stressed the need for those working in the community’s interest to combine forces. “The communities rely on agriculture, livestock, and natural resources for their survival. They are the most affected by climate change,” Tantely Andriambololona, climate change adaptation coordinator at WWF’s Madagascar bureau, affirmed.

“Even the traditional medicine the Malagasy people relied on in the past is no longer safe today. Many plant species have gone extinct because of bushfires amid the climate change context, and even the nature of the leaves themselves has changed,” Louis de Gonzague Razafimanandraibe, president of Tafo Mihaavo, a national network of natural resource-managing communities uniting over four million members in Madagascar, corroborated.

For his part, Stefana Raharijaona, senior programme officer in Madagascar for Natural Justice, said: “Climate change harms fundamental rights. It questions the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment.” According to him, effective energy transition is urgent across the country for the adaptation of the population.

Madagascar has its one-decade National Adaptation Plan, adopted in 2021. The document highlights three major strategies: reinforcement of governance and integration of adaptation; planning of priority actions; and adaptation financing. Among other points, the announced programmes include: fighting desertification; strengthening the resilience of rural communities; adapting the fishing sector and early alert systems; improving safe water access; improving community health; implementing large-scale tree planting under the REDD+ mechanism and developing ecosystem services; improving forest conservation and protected areas management; protecting coastal infrastructure against sea-level rise; developing smart agriculture and agroecology; and optimising sustainable towns and habitat resilience.

In the field, the World Bank has funded the $25 million Green Belt Project to stabilise dunes in the three worst drought-affected regions in the south of Madagascar. In the meantime, the community is encouraged to implement small-scale restoration initiatives by valuing indigenous species existing locally, while the government itself is committed to annually carrying out tree planting over 75,000 hectares and reforesting 270,000 hectares with native species by 2030. At present, the early fire alert system is updated daily to prevent huge devastation, aiding the resilience of both ecosystems and communities.

Facing the complexity of the situation, the meteorology department calls for the full cooperation of all. “We don’t have the ability to do everything. We work with all sectors. Our mission is to protect people and their goods, like that of the army. But we don’t have weapons — instead, we have updated forecasts,” Ramarosandratana said. She insisted that the biggest challenge would be to make scientific data available in simple words for final users to aid their adaptation. “A collective momentum is highly needed,” she insisted.

Final summary: Madagascar's coastal communities are grappling with severe challenges due to inadequate meteorological information, leading to tragic losses among fisherfolk and perpetuating poverty cycles. The Mitao Forecast Africa innovation, utilising AI to simplify complex data, offers a promising solution by providing timely alerts to improve safety and financial planning, while also aiding ecological conservation and community adaptation.