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Ethiopia faces rising climate risks including floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall, threatening lives and GDP.
Annual economic losses due to climate impacts are projected to reach 5% of GDP by the 2040s.
The National Adaptation Plan outlines sectoral priorities to build resilience by 2030, costing $6 billion annually.
Ethiopia aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 69% by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050.
Renewable energy accounts for 100% of national grid supply, with the GERD set to double output.
Over 40 billion trees planted since 2019 under the “Green Legacy Initiative”.
Electric vehicles and e-mobility infrastructure are being expanded to curb emissions.
Climate change is worsening health outcomes, particularly among the elderly and poor.
Agriculture remains highly vulnerable, with smallholders needing urgent support for adaptation.
Ethiopia is advocating for Africa’s fair share of international climate finance and support.
Ethiopia’s mountainous and highland terrain makes it particularly vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change, with severe weather events — floods, droughts and landslides — now affecting communities across the country.
The World Bank estimates annual climate-related losses to gross domestic product or GDP at 1-1.5 per cent, with projections suggesting these could rise to 5 per cent by the 2040s, pushing millions more Ethiopians into poverty. The Woodwell Climate Research Center’s National Climate Risk Assessment of Ethiopia (April 2025) projects a 20-30 per cent increase in historically extreme rainfall by 2050 and up to 40 per cent by 2070 across much of the country.
“Flood risk is generally concentrated within the central Rift Valley and in Somali, where communities have developed within the floodplain,” the centre noted. “We estimate that the 100-year flood will impact more than 840,000 structures and cause greater than $1.2 billion 2020 USD ($1.47 billion in 2025 USD), or more than 47 billion 2020 Birr (192 billion in 2025 Birr), in building damages.”
Temperature increases of around a degree Celsius (°C) since the 1960s and erratic rainfall patterns have compounded Ethiopia’s climate vulnerability, said Dessalegn Atnafu, head of the biosafety and regulation desk at the Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA). Droughts and floods, he added, have become alarmingly frequent.
To address these risks, Ethiopia has developed a comprehensive climate policy framework, aligning itself with international agreements such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The country submitted its first updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2020, with a target to cut emissions by 68.8 per cent by 2030. It is now preparing its next NDC submission for the 2031-2035 period.
Ethiopia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP), adopted in 2019, outlines strategic actions to boost climate resilience. Earmias Masresha, a senior environmental risk assessment expert at the EPA, explained that the plan identifies 18 adaptation options and five strategic priorities to be pursued until 2030. These span vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, forestry, health, transport, energy, industry, water and urban development.
“The plan seeks to mainstream climate change adaptation into long-term national development,” he said. The estimated implementation cost is $6 billion annually over 15 years. However, securing consistent funding from domestic, private and international sources remains a major challenge.
Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy, first unveiled at 27th Conference of Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Durban, South Africa in 2011, sets the goal of achieving middle-income status by 2025 without increasing net greenhouse gas emissions.
Ahead of the Second Africa Climate Summit to be held in Addis Ababa from September 8-10, 2025, Planning and Development Minister Fitsum Assefa highlighted Ethiopia’s landmark Green Legacy Initiative, through which over 40 billion seedlings were planted between 2019 and 2023.
Flagship programmes including renewable energy expansion, electric mobility, climate-smart urban planning, watershed restoration and sustainable land use have further supported Ethiopia’s adaptation agenda. As the current chair of the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment, Ethiopia is also advocating for Africa’s equitable share of international climate finance.
Through its Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy, Ethiopia aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The NDC Implementation Plan requires an estimated $316 billion for the 2030 goals. The government has pledged to fund 20 per cent of this cost, with the remainder dependent on external support.
The Health National Adaptation Plan II (2024-2028) identifies Ethiopia as highly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. Climate impacts range from direct exposure to heatwaves and extreme weather to indirect effects on food, water, disease transmission and infrastructure.
The plan estimates that by 2030, an additional 248,200 people per year could be at risk of flooding. Heat-related deaths among the elderly (65+) may rise to over 65 per 100,000 people annually by 2080 — up from fewer than three per 100,000 today.
Agricultural productivity is also at risk. According to Earmias Masresha of the EPA, rainfall variability and rising temperatures — especially a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in south-central Ethiopia — have already taken a toll. Major droughts in recent years have slashed GDP by 1-4 per cent, while soil erosion from intense rains has cost the economy around 1 per cent of GDP.
Messay Emana Getu of the Ethiopia Biotechnology Institute warned that low adaptive capacity, coupled with climate-sensitive agriculture, makes Ethiopia especially vulnerable. Around 97 per cent of rural households depend on farming or livestock, cultivating an average of just 1.1 hectares each, mostly for their own consumption.
“Most cereals — 55 per cent to 80 per cent — are consumed by the households themselves, with sales accounting for only 15 per cent or less,” said Messay. He noted that smallholders are poorly equipped to cope with climate shocks and emphasised the need for soil and water conservation, agroforestry, irrigation and diversified livelihoods.
Ethiopia’s energy strategy plays a central role in its climate ambitions. Under the CRGE, the country plans to generate electricity using 70 per cent hydropower, 20 per cent wind and solar and 10 per cent geothermal.
According to the Ethiopian Energy Outlook 2025, the country’s national grid is already powered entirely by renewables, with hydropower dominant. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is partially operational, now generates 2,350 megawatts (MW), with six of the 13 planned turbines commissioned. Once completed in September 2025, GERD will become Africa’s largest hydroelectric project with a capacity of over 5,000 MW.
In July 2025, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told parliament that Ethiopia’s current national capacity stands at 4.3 GW — comprising 3.9 GW from hydropower and 0.4 GW from wind. The country has begun exporting electricity to Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya and Tanzania.
To complement its renewable generation, Ethiopia is also promoting electric vehicles (EV). The government aims to raise the number of EVs from 15,000 today to 148,000 by 2030. High import duties are being imposed on internal combustion engine vehicles to encourage the shift.
Ethiopia’s climate ambitions are underpinned by a series of national strategies, including its Ten-Year Development Plan (2021-2030), the Long-Term Low Carbon Emission Development Strategy (2020-2050), the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy and the National Adaptation Plan.
