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A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed alarming statistics about the impacts of climate change on Africa. The continent, home to approximately 1.3 billion people, loses 2-5 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to climate change, it showed. Many countries are using up to 9 per cent of their budgets to respond to climate extremes.
Africa is currently losing $7-15 billion annually due to climate change, according to the 2022 African Economic Outlook (AEO) by the African Development Bank. This figure could rise to $50 billion yearly by 2030, representing up to 7 per cent of Africa’s GDP on average.
In 2022, African countries incurred nearly $9 billion in losses and damages due to climate change, spending between 5-15 per cent of their GDP per capita on recovery efforts. Projections indicate that, under a 2 degrees Celsius warming scenario, the costs of loss and damage in Africa could reach at least $290 billion.
The impact of climate change on Africa is not only financial but also human. The WMO estimated that over 110 million people were affected by the climate crisis in Africa in 2022. Food inflation reached its highest levels in three decades, averaging 30 per cent, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
Some 282 million people in Africa, or about 20 per cent of the population, face undernourishment and food insecurity. Agricultural productivity is being negatively impacted by droughts and floods, leading to increased reliance on food imports. This impacts the current account balance and diverts investments from productive sectors.
Richard Munang, head of the Global Environment Monitoring Systems at the United Nations Environment Programme, painted a dire picture of the consequences of an increasingly warming climate on the African continent.
Africa is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the globe, he said. This is in addition to other effects such as a 20 per cent decline in precipitation, a 20 per cent increase in storm intensity, an 8 per cent increase in arid and semi-arid lands, an up to 50 per cent drop in rainfed agriculture potential, the dire socioeconomic consequences that were projected to occur by 2030, 2050, 2100, the expert noted.
The GDP drop of up to 15 per cent that was originally forecast to happen in 2030 and by 50-85 per cent by 2050, the 14 per cent higher sea-level rise, the 40 per cent decline in yields in key staples that was projected to occur by 2050 as well as shrinkage of incomes by a whopping 75 per cent that was projected to occur by 2100, will move much closer to the present, Munang added.
“And with this, escalation of socioeconomic misery that is already at breaking point is guaranteed. Be it the 257 million people experiencing hunger; the over 12 million young people who need jobs every year amidst shrinking economies, the up to 60 million children that are malnourished and costing the continent 1.9-16 per cent of its GDP; among many.”
“…the urgency to increase climate action ambition is not a matter of trust, but of collective survival,” he added.
“African nations are implementing various adaptation strategies, such as building climate-resilient infrastructure, enhancing early warning systems, and promoting climate-smart agriculture,” Munang told DTE.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the cost of adaptation is estimated to be between $30-50 billion annually over the next decade, or 2-3 per cent of the region's GDP, according to WMO’s State of the Climate in Africa 2023 report.
Still, Munang believes Africa must not throw its hands up in the air and surrender, nor should the continent continue to rely only on foreign assistance.
“…we also must now start to urgently ask ourselves how we can mobilise local investments for climate action. How we can make each of the 1.3 billion people in Africa, investors in climate action solutions because none of us is immune to its devastations,” he said.
The first thing to change, he suggested, must be the narrative around climate action in Africa. It must “urgently graduate from projecting liability to projecting opportunities”.
The second issue, he said, is climate policy implementation. Africa excels in climate policy formulation, with 98 per cent of countries ratifying their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the highest compliance rate globally, he pointed out. However, the challenge lies in implementation.
Despite the high ratification rate, over 70 per cent of countries have not translated their NDCs into actionable investments that demonstrate clear returns for investors. This gap highlights the need for Africa to prioritise investment tools that align implementation with financial and economic returns.
Thirdly, the informal sector that employs over 80 per cent of Africa’s workforce, including a significant number of young people, is crucial for the continent’s present and future economic landscape, Munang noted. Targeting this sector with climate action solutions can address its challenges and leverage its opportunities.
With over 60 per cent of Africa’s population being young, this demographic represents a significant potential for driving economic competitiveness and climate action, he stressed. Skills retooling, which involves improving, refining and adapting the skills of young people to align with economic opportunities in the implementation of Africa’s NDCs, is essential for harnessing this potential, Munang said.
As the world prepares for the 29th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11-22, 2024, Munang suggested that Africa should root for “increased adaptation financing, the implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund and stronger support for renewable energy projects”.
These measures, he said, are essential for protecting livelihoods and promoting sustainable development across the continent.