Middle East and North Africa warming much faster than global average, finds study

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are warming much faster than the global average, with notable hotspots in the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria, according to a new study.

The study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research examines in detail the actual and projected temperature changes in the MENA region from 1850 to the end of this century. 

Researchers, utilising dynamically downscaled climate models, have uncovered notable regional differences and biases in temperature projections for the MENA region. The temperature patterns exhibited seasonal fluctuations and distinct warming rates between coastal and inland zones throughout the MENA region.

Using the most recently available data and models, the researchers showed that the MENA region, especially the Arabian Peninsula, was experiencing a much faster rate of warming compared to the global average. The central Arabian Peninsula's warming rate was found to be similar to that of the Arctic and is two to three times higher than the worldwide average.

This discovery is alarming as the Arabian Peninsula is already among the hottest places on the planet. Other regions experiencing significant warming include Algeria, Mauritania and the Elburz Mountains in Iran.

The MENA region, known for its largely arid and semi-arid environments typical of hot desert climates, has been recognised as a major climate-change hotspot. The area faces significant threats from climatic changes due to high greenhouse gas emissions.

The MENA region, which already has record-breaking summer temperatures, is currently close to exceeding 2 degrees Celsius of warming on average, compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Additional warming in the region could make some areas uninhabitable without adaption measures.

Warming rates are not consistent across the seasons. The researchers found summer hotspots over the central Arabian Peninsula, including the populous Riyadh Province and Algeria, and winter hotspots over Mauritania and Iran's Elburz Mountains.

By 2100, the Arabian Peninsula could warm on average by 2.6°C under low emission scenarios and by 7.6°C under high emission scenarios, according to the study.

That is because the arid deserts of MENA cannot easily cool through evaporation of soil moisture, unlike their humid equatorial counterparts elsewhere in the world.

Due to coastal cooling, densely populated areas along the southern and western coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, including Oman, are currently not warming as quickly as inland areas and the eastern coast of the peninsula.

If the world meets low emissions targets, the pace of warming in MENA could slow by as much as 38 per cent. Individual cities could also try to adapt to the extreme heat through urban greening and architectural solutions.

This study is the first comprehensive and detailed analysis of climate change in the MENA region, specifically concentrating on the Arabian Peninsula and its coastal areas.