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Climate change is worsening global heat exposure, with Africa bearing the brunt of its effects, according to a new analysis by Climate Central. It is based on the non-profit’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) that measures how climate change alters the frequency of daily temperatures worldwide, quantifying its role in rising heat levels.
Positive CSI levels 1 to 5 indicate temperatures that are increasingly likely in today’s climate. A CSI level of 2 means the temperature is at least 2 times more likely in today’s climate than in a world without human-caused climate change
Climate Central’s report, released on March 19, analysed daily temperatures in 220 countries to understand where there was unusual heat and how climate change influenced those temperatures.
In 110 or half of the analysed countries, the average person experienced daily temperatures with a strong influence of climate change for at least one-third of the last three months, revealed the study.
It showed that 1.8 billion people or 22 per cent of the global population—or one in five people—experienced climate change-driven temperature increases every day between December 2024 and February 2025. In other words, they endured climate change-driven temperatures throughout the entire season.
The impact peaked on February 28, 2025, when 3 billion people (37 per cent of the global population) faced temperatures strongly influenced by climate change, classified at Climate Central’s CSI level 2 or higher.
At least one billion people across 36 countries in Africa experienced daily average temperatures that were strongly influenced by climate change (defined as CSI 2 or higher) for at least one-third of the season (30 or more days). Temperatures were strongly influenced by climate change in the range of 70 to 87 days in 12 of these countries.
Nearly 14 million people in Rwanda experienced 87 days during the past three months with temperatures strongly influenced by climate change. Ethiopia, the second most populated African country, experienced 74 days.
The average person on the planet experienced six days of risky heat from December 2024 to February 2025. The analysis shows that human-induced climate change added five risky heat days to the average person’s experience during this time period. Without climate change, the average person’s exposure to risky heat would have been only one day during the last three months.
Climate change is intensifying heat-related health risks by increasing the frequency of ‘risky heat days’—days when temperatures exceed the 90th percentile of local records from 1991 to 2020.
More than 394 million people experienced 30 or more days of risky heat added by climate change during the last three months. Most of these people (293 million or 74 per cent) live in Africa. In other words, three of every four people exposed to 30 or more days of risky heat lived in Africa.
Eight of the 10 countries with the highest number of people exposed to these extreme heat days are in Africa. These include Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, and Cameroon.
Between December 2024 and February 2025, ten countries across Africa and Oceania recorded the highest number of risky heat days added due to climate change. In Africa, the Comoros experienced the most, with 52 additional risky heat days, followed by Liberia (45), Equatorial Guinea (42), Ghana (40), and Mauritius (36).
The findings of the study are a reminder of Africa’s disproportionate climate burden despite contributing minimally to global emissions. As extreme heat events become more frequent and severe, the urgency for climate adaptation and resilience strategies in Africa has never been greater, it said.