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A new study has found that nearly 84 per cent of Indian districts are experiencing extreme heatwaves, while 70 per cent of the districts are seeing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events during the monsoon.
Also, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are facing a double whammy of extreme temperatures and extreme rainfall and it is mentioned that by 2036, eight out of every 10 Indians will be affected by extreme weather events.
The report titled Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate is jointly produced by IPE Global and ESRI India is based on the assessment of temperature and rainfall data from various regions of the country in the time span of 1993 to 2022.
According to the study, over these decades, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity, and uncertainty of extreme temperature and rainfall events.
In India, the number of heatwave days from March to September has increased fifteen fold between 1993 and 2022.
In the past decade alone, extreme heatwave days have increased nineteen fold. The study indicates that not only has the incidence of extreme events increased over the past three decades, but the number of people affected by these events is also expected to rise in the future.
Additionally, the study notes that over 62 per cent of heat wave-affected districts in India from October to December are facing irregular and excessive rainfall.
The report indicates that the increase in atmospheric temperature and humidity is raising the likelihood of heatwaves globally, particularly in tropical regions.
Based on the regional analysis of the study, the following states are experiencing extreme heatwaves:
Coastal Areas: Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Maharashtra
Plain Areas: Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Punjab, Telangana, Bihar, Delhi
Hilly Areas: Tripura, Mizoram, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Meghalaya, Himachal Pradesh
The study also found that during the monsoon season in India, non-rainy days are exhibiting summer-like conditions.
Abhinash Mohanty, head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and author of the study, noted that the current trend of devastating extreme heat and rainfall events is a result of a 0.6°C increase in temperature over the past century.
“India is experiencing more severe patterns of extreme events compared to previous waves. Recent incidents in Kerala, such as continuous and irregular rainfall leading to landslides and sudden city shutdowns, are evidence of climate change,” he said.
“Our analysis shows that by 2036, 8 out of 10 Indians will be affected by extreme events, and these numbers will peak,” Mohanty added.
Also, Agendra Kumar, Managing Director of ESRI India, commented, “The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and heatwaves are having significant impacts on life, livelihoods, and infrastructure. GIS technology and mapping, along with data, can strengthen strategies for mitigating and managing the adverse effects of climate change”.
The study also found that in districts that have identified district hotspots, there has been a 55 per cent change in land use and land cover. These changing patterns are due to microclimate changes in the Indian subcontinent caused by local climate change factors such as land-use and land-cover changes, deforestation, and encroachment on mangroves and wetlands.
It recommends that risk assessment should be at the core of India's strategy to build resilience against heatwaves and extreme rainfall.
The study proposes the establishment of a Heat Risk Observatory (HRO). Such an observatory would help in the detailed identification, assessment, and forecasting of heat risks, providing better preparation against heat-related extreme conditions. It would focus on urban heat islands, water stress, vector-borne diseases, crop losses and the decline of biodiversity and ecosystems.