The ancient Armenian church Khor Virap with the Biblical Mount Ararat in the background.
The ancient Armenian church Khor Virap with the Biblical Mount Ararat in the background. Alexander Ishchenko iStock

Ahead of COP29 in Baku, Azeri capital and South Caucasus region face growing challenges due to climate change

Rising temperatures are melting glaciers in the Caucasus Mountains, leading to water shortages, extreme weather events
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The 29th Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to start from November 11 in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. As the world descends on the city besides the Caspian Sea, what of the region it lies in, the South Caucasus?

Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia face growing challenges as far as climate change is concerned. The two dominant features that define them — the Caucasus Mountains and the Caspian Sea — are witnessing rapid changes. With the result that the three countries are facing new threats, ones which they had not faced earlier.

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The ancient Armenian church Khor Virap with the Biblical Mount Ararat in the background.

“Climate change affects the whole region, which includes extensive mountain ecosystems and remote coastal zones,” a report titled Climate Change and Security in the South Caucasus had noted a few years ago.

The report was prepared by The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC), a partnership of five international organisations.

These are the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), UN Environment (UNEP), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC).

Rising temperatures & extreme weather

The root cause for the changing climate of the South Caucasus is rising temperature. All three countries are witnessing it.

For instance, the ‘climate risk country profile’ of Armenia prepared by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank informs that “Armenia could experience warming at levels significantly above the global average, with potential warming of 4.7°C by the 2090s, above the 1986-2005 baseline, under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5)”.

The expected rise in maximum and minimum temperatures are even more significant and represent major threats to human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems, it adds.

Armenia’s neighbour and host of COP29, Azerbaijan’s “NC3 reports an increase in temperatures across the country of 1.3°C in 2010, relative to the average annual temperatures observed in the period 1961-1990”, as per its profile on the EU4Climate portal.

“Temperatures in Azerbaijan are projected to rise at a faster rate than the global average, with potential warming of 4.7°C by the 2090s over the 1986-2005 baseline, under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5),” it adds.

Georgia has not experienced temperature changes as drastic as those of its neighbours. But it could go their way, according to reports.

The increasing temperatures are leading to extreme weather events like mudslides, droughts, floods and wildfires.

But the biggest consequent threat staring the region in the face is water. Or rather the lack of it. The increasing temperatures are causing glaciers to melt, with serious consequences for the region’s water supply.

Of the three countries of the region, Azerbaijan is expected to experience the brunt of glacial melt impacts. The country has more glaciers than its two neighbours. But there is a catch.

“Due to its downstream location in the Kura basin, Azerbaijan is under the influence of high transboundary climate risks. For example, more than 70 percent of the country’s water resources are formed in the territory of neighboring countries. Therefore, any adaptation action necessary to be implemented in the country should be linked to transboundary climate risks,” its profile on EU4Climate notes.

Azerbaijan’s water resources are expected to decrease by 5-10 per cent in 2040 and by 10-15 per cent in 2070 in an optimistic emissions scenario. They will decrease by 10-15 per cent in 2040 and by 15-25 per cent in 2070 in a pessimistic emissions scenario, as per the profile.

The restive South Caucasus could also face security risks due to climate change, as per the ENVSEC report. The report identified areas “where climate change has the potential to undermine socioeconomic systems, threaten infrastructure or livelihoods, or compromise security by exacerbating political or social tensions”.

Regional/transboundary areas of this types as listed by the report include:

  • Northern Armenia and southern Georgia  

  • The north-west Azerbaijan and north-east Georgia border area (Alazani/Ganykh river basin)

Meanwhile, areas within countries include:

  • Yerevan and Ararat Valley (Armenia)

  • Lake Sevan (Armenia)

  • Southern Armenia (Armenia)

  •  South-eastern Armenia (Armenia)

  • The Kura-Ara(k)s lowlands (Azerbaijan)

  • Baku and Absheron peninsula (Azerbaijan)

  • Adjara and the Black Sea coast (Georgia)

  • Tbilisi (Georgia)

  • The Mtskheta-Mtianeti region (Georgia)

  • The Kakheti region (Georgia)

  • North-west Georgia

“This study recommends that the Governments of the South Caucasus countries take swift actions from the local to the regional level to tackle the impacts of climate change and the implications for security. Some of the proposed areas of intervention, including those matching the priorities of the Environment and Security Initiative, will need strengthened transboundary co-operation as well as more consistent and targeted international support,” the ENVSEC report concluded.

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