Subscribe
The future of Antarctic ice is grim. While ice loss from Antarctica will increase gradually throughout this century, after 2100, the levels will plummet and become a real danger for the world, according to a new study led by Dartmouth College and involving over 50 climate scientists.
The research, published in the journal Earth’s Future, is the first of its kind to provide clear projections of how carbon emissions could affect Antarctica's ice sheet over the next 300 years. The findings suggested that by 2200, sea levels could rise by as much as 5.5 feet. Some areas of the West Antarctic ice sheet facing near-total collapse by 2300 if current emission levels continue, according to the researchers.
Projections beyond 2100 are critical to understanding the full impact of climate change on global sea levels, according to Hélène Seroussi, associate professor at Dartmouth’s Thayer School of Engineering and lead author of the study.
"When you talk to policymakers and stakeholders about sea-level rise, they mostly focus on what will happen up to 2100. There are very few studies beyond that," said Seroussi.
In the worst-case scenarios where carbon emissions continue unchecked, the authors noted, several ice basins in West Antarctica could experience rapid and irreversible collapse, accelerating the pace of sea-level rise dramatically.
The study combined data from 16 ice-sheet models. Despite slight variations in the timing of glacier retreat across different models, all of them agree on one key point: Once significant ice loss starts, it will be rapid and unstoppable.
"All the models agree that once these large changes are initiated, nothing can stop them or slow them down," Seroussi explained.
Sea-level rise is one of the most immediate and tangible consequences of climate change, and the findings of this study painted a worrying picture for the future. Although the rate of ice loss will be relatively gradual in the 21st century, the steep increase in melting after 2100 could have catastrophic consequences for coastal communities and low-lying regions.
If emissions remain high, the high sea levels will submerge vast areas of land, displacing millions of people, decimating island nations and also threatening critical infrastructure in cities such as New York, Mumbai and Shanghai.
Even under low-emission scenarios, sea levels are likely to rise significantly after 2100, making adaptation and mitigation strategies essential for vulnerable regions.
The effects of sea-level rise are not just limited to flooding. Rising sea levels increase the risk of storm surges, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion, all of which have devastating impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods.
Many coastal cities are already struggling to cope with these challenges, and the study’s findings suggested that the situation will worsen dramatically in the next few centuries unless urgent action is taken.
The study highlighted the critical difference between high- and low-emission scenarios when it comes to ice loss and sea-level rise. While immediate carbon reductions could slow down the rate of ice melt, delaying action could push Antarctica’s glaciers beyond the point of no return, the authors warned.
"The exact timing of such collapses remains unknown and depends on future greenhouse gas emissions," said Seroussi. "So we need to respond quickly enough to reduce emissions before the major basins are lost."
Reducing emissions now would not only lessen the long-term impact on Antarctica’s ice but could also give scientists and policymakers more time to develop adaptation strategies for coastal regions, the authors highlighted.
According to the research, the difference between a high-emission and low-emission future is stark. Under a high-emission scenario, the pace of sea-level rise after 2100 will be far more dramatic, leaving little time to respond to the growing crisis.
The study's findings underlined the importance of international cooperation and immediate action to combat climate change.
In addition to cutting emissions, there is also a need for continued research into ice-sheet modelling and the factors that drive glacier retreat, the researchers noted.