Changing rainfall patterns in Nagaland call for region-specific water management strategies

Nagaland, a hidden gem in India’s north-eastern region, is a land of rolling hills, lush green valleys, and majestic rivers. Known for its rich culture and biodiversity, the state is blessed with scenic beauty and resources. Life here primarily revolves around agriculture which is the life-blood for the local communities. 

However, like much of the world, Nagaland is facing the brunt of climate change. Rainfall patterns, once predictable, are becoming increasingly erratic. For the communities that are dependent on natural resources and are affected by the inconsistent rainfall patterns, the livelihood opportunities are shrinking at an alarming rate. 

A study conducted by us, using data for the last 40 years, has uncovered significant shifts in Nagaland’s precipitation patterns. These changes, while varying across different parts of the state, point to a growing need for adaptive water management and agricultural practices. The findings offer a window into how climate change is impacting the northeast and provide a foundation for addressing these challenges.

Why understanding rainfall matters

Right along the flow of vast rivers like Doyang and Dikhu to the terraced paddy fields, water from the rainfall sustains ecosystems, agriculture and communities. 

However, when rainfall patterns shift — whether it’s too much or too little — these systems are thrown out of balance. For decades, the people of Nagaland have relied on the annual cycle of monsoon rainfall for paddy cultivation and cultivating winter crops like sugarcane and vegetables.

These rains also support the thick forests that nurture diverse wildlife. But when rainfall becomes unpredictable, it can lead to disasters like floods, soil erosion, and even water scarcity during dry periods. 

Our study aimed to understand how rainfall is changing over time and across the state, to prepare for these changes and mitigate their impacts.

Study findings 

The study, carried out using historical rainfall data of forty years, analysed rainfall trends across eleven stations in Nagaland. Using a technique called Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), the study detected significant variations in both seasonal and annual rainfall.

Out of the eleven places studied, three stations saw an increase in annual rainfall, mainly in the north-western areas like Mokokchung and Longleng. 

However, eight stations, especially in urban areas like Dimapur and Kohima, recorded less rainfall. 

The rapid growth of population and deforestation in these cities might be responsible for this decrease. When looking at seasonal rainfall, the monsoon season showed a mixed picture- rainfall increased at four stations, while seven saw a drop. 

The winter season was more concerning, as all eleven stations experienced a drop in rainfall, which is important for farming and water supply during the dry months. 

Rainfall varied significantly across the state, with northern regions like Tuensang and Longleng seeing more rain, while southeastern areas like Peren and Kohima experienced sharp declines. The decrease was more noticeable in places affected by urban development and deforestation, suggesting that human activities are likely playing a role in these changes.

Rainfall declining in some regions

Several factors could be attributed to the changes in Nagaland’s rainfall patterns. Rapid urbanisation, particularly in Dimapur and Kohima, has led to more construction, deforestation, and degradation of natural landscapes. 

These activities can disrupt the hydrological cycle, reducing the land’s capacity to retain and absorb water. As more trees are cut down, the soil loses its ability to store water, causing faster runoff during rains and less groundwater recharge. The effects of climate change are also being felt, with rising global temperatures altering monsoon patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events.

Larger implications

For a state where agriculture is the backbone of the economy, changing rainfall patterns pose significant challenges in the life-world of the communities. Farmers rely heavily on both the monsoon and winter rains to cultivate rice, maize, and other crops. A decrease in rainfall can lead to crop failures, soil degradation, and food shortages, especially in areas already struggling with water availability.

In regions where rainfall is decreasing, such as Kohima and Peren, methods to conserve water must become a priority. These could include building check dams, rainwater harvesting systems, and restoring forests to improve water retention. Conversely, in areas where rainfall is increasing, such as Mokokchung, there is a risk of waterlogging and soil erosion, which can harm crops and reduce soil fertility. Proper drainage systems and soil conservation measures are essential to manage this excess water.

Lessons for Nagaland

The study highlighted the need for region-specific water management strategies. In areas experiencing declining rainfall, such as Dimapur and Kohima, water conservation and management efforts should be intensified. This could involve building more water harvesting structures, such as ponds and tanks that store rainwater for use during dry periods. Additionally, reforestation and sustainable land-use practices are crucial in maintaining the ecological balance and ensuring long-term water availability.

In regions where rainfall is on the rise, such as Tuensang and Mokokchung, the focus should be on managing the excess water to prevent floods and soil erosion. Building check dams and creating efficient drainage systems can help control the water flow and minimise damage to crops and infrastructure. Efforts to protect and restore natural water bodies, like rivers and wetlands, will also be critical in balancing the region’s water needs.

The government can also play a key role by supporting farmers with training on climate-resilient farming techniques. Encouraging the cultivation of drought-resistant crops, promoting soil conservation, and offering financial incentives for water-saving practices can help farmers adapt to the changing conditions.

Navigating uncertainty

The changes in Nagaland’s rainfall patterns are part of a larger global shift. As climate change accelerates, it brings with it increased uncertainty for regions dependent on consistent weather patterns. While some areas will face the challenge of too much rain, others will struggle with too little. The key to navigating these changes lies in understanding the trends and implementing adaptive measures that address the specific needs of each region.

The findings from this study are a wake-up call for policymakers, environmentalists, and communities alike. By working together, Nagaland can develop sustainable strategies that ensure water security, protect its rich biodiversity, and sustain its agricultural practices in the face of climate change. With careful planning and proactive measures, this scenic state can continue to thrive, even as the rains grow more unpredictable.

In conclusion, future planning must balance development with sustainability, involving local communities in forest management and land-use practices. Continuous monitoring and combining modern technology with traditional knowledge will be crucial for Nagaland to adapt to its changing climate, setting a model for other northeastern states.

Santosh Pathak is pursuing M.Tech in Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Agricultural Engineering and Post Harvest Technology (CAEPHT), Gangtok, Sikkim

B C Kusre is Professor, Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, CAEPHT

Mhalevonuo Chielie is a research scholar at CAEPHT

Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth