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Nepal is facing torrential rains and a series of floods, landslides and inundations, which have resulted in at least 112 deaths so far, with severe damage to the Kathmandu Valley.
While scientists have acknowledged the role of an unusually strong monsoon system, they have also highlighted the growing role of climate change in intensifying the frequency and severity of such extreme weather events in the region. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) — a regional intergovernmental learning and knowledge sharing centre serving the eight regional member countries of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region — has linked this weekend’s deadly floods to a combination of changing weather patterns and unplanned development, both of which leave Nepal increasingly vulnerable.
Much of Kathmandu is now submerged, with the Bagmati river swelling well above danger levels, ICIMOD stated in a press note. The relentless downpour saw over 340 millimetres (mm) of rain across the Kathmandu Valley and rivers across eastern and central Nepal, including the Narayani and Sunkoshi, are dangerously high, with water levels far exceeding safe limits.
The unprecedented deluge has brought much of the capital to a standstill as rescue workers struggle to evacuate residents trapped by rising waters. The situation has grown dire in areas like Kumaltar and Godavari, which recorded rainfall totals of 381.2 mm and 346.6 mm, respectively, exacerbating the threat of further flooding and landslides.
Nepal government has mobilised helicopters and boats to rescue citizens stranded in their homes as the water continues to rise. Major roads remain closed and domestic flights have been severely impacted, further complicating the rescue and relief efforts.
The disaster is caused by a deadly combination of climate change and urbanisation, according to the Nepal-based ICIMOD statement, many of whose employees also found themselves on the frontline of these floods. “I’ve never before seen flooding on this scale in Kathmandu,” Arun Bhakta Shrestha, climate and environmental risks lead at ICIMOD, in the statement.
Unplanned construction, particularly on floodplains, has left large parts of Kathmandu and other urban areas with poor drainage, insufficient water retention capacity and increasing exposure to flood risks. With soil already saturated from an unusually wet monsoon season, this weekend’s rains fell on highly vulnerable ground, amplifying the damage.
Nepal’s rapid urbanisation, particularly in Kathmandu, has brought with it a host of environmental challenges. As natural water-absorbing landscapes, such as wetlands and floodplains, have been replaced by concrete structures, cities have lost critical buffers against floods. Poorly planned settlements and rampant construction on flood-prone areas mean that drainage systems cannot cope with the volume of water during extreme weather events, ICIMOD stated.
The organisation advocated for greater investment in both “grey” (engineered) and “green” (nature-based) infrastructure to mitigate the impact of floods. Grey infrastructure, such as underground stormwater systems and better sewage networks, can help channel excess water away from built-up areas. Green solutions, such as restoring wetlands and implementing permeable pavements, can increase water absorption and improve the capacity of urban areas to withstand heavy rains.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya region, which includes Nepal, has experienced a growing number of extreme weather events in recent years. Back-to-back heavy monsoon years in 2023 and 2024 have caused widespread devastation, with floods and landslides affecting millions across the region.
Recent studies have shown that Asia is set to experience the greatest rainfall changes globally by the end of the century. Nepal, along with its neighbours Bangladesh, China and India, is one of the ten countries most at risk of extreme rainfall by 2100. A 2023 report by XDI found that 114 of the top 200 provinces at greatest risk of climate-related damage by 2050 will be in Asia.
Research published earlier this year in the journal Science highlighted that climate change is leading not only to more intense rainfall but also to greater variability, with longer dry periods punctuated by extreme downpours. This increased variability poses new challenges for weather prediction and disaster preparedness, making it harder for communities and ecosystems to adapt.
In the face of these growing risks, ICIMOD stated it has been working with regional governments and communities to enhance early warning systems and increase the accuracy of weather forecasts. The centre’s high-impact weather assessment toolkit has helped predict changes in rainfall patterns and alerted authorities to the risk of flooding.
Yet, despite these advances, experts say that without more comprehensive planning and investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, Nepal will continue to face mounting losses from extreme weather. The region’s vulnerability to climate change, coupled with haphazard development, means that every monsoon season could bring fresh devastation.