COP29: New NDCs announced by UAE and Brazil; fossil fuel production remains an open question

UAE and Brazil were the first two countries to share their updated National Determined Contributions (NDC), a key instrument through which the progress of the countries towards reducing their national emissions can be shown and tracked, on the first day of the 29th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) being held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

UAE has committed to achieve a reduction of 47 per cent in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2035 from its 2019 levels of 196.3 MtCO2e — a net reduction of 103.5 MtCO2e.

Within the hard-to-abate sectors such as industry, transportation and buildings that are mainly reliant on oil and gas, the country has set targets for each sector to achieve a reduction of 27, 20 and 79 per cent, respectively, by 2035.

In July 2023, the country updated its National Energy Strategy that aims to increase the renewable power generation capacity to 30 per cent of the total power component by 2030.

The country aims to increase the share of electric vehicles (EV) to 50 per cent of the market share by 2050, according to its national policy on the sector.

Globally, the International Energy Agency indicated that EV sales should be more than 65 per cent in line with its Net Zero by 2050 scenario for the 1.5 target.

Global climate movement, 350.org, has rated UAE’s target as ‘insufficient’ overall compared to the 1.5℃ aligned domestic pathway, even though there is an improvement over the past NDC. It is because of the lack of clarity in terms of how the target will be achieved — whether through the fossil fuel phase out or technologies that capture carbon.

Brazil had initially shared only its headline emission target. But on November 13, 2024, the country shared its complete NDC, with its target of reducing their net GHG emissions by 59-67 per cent by 2035 compared to 2005 levels. It means the absolute emission reductions will be between 0.85 and 1.05 billion tonnes of CO2e in 2035.

The Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector contributed around 65 per cent to the 2005 GHG levels [taking the net GHG emissions arising from LULUCF of 1.67 billion tonnes and dividing it by total GHG emissions of 2.59 billion tonnes (including LULUCF) for 2005], according to the emissions summary for Brazil provided to UNFCCC. 

There has been a 60 per cent decrease in LULUCF emissions in 2020 from 2005 levels, according to the data provided by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) for LULUCF from 2005 to 2020. This could be possible due to the reduced deforestation rates in Brazil.

With implemented policies that facilitate reduction in deforestation, the GHG emissions from the LULUCF sector may decrease further. Thus, some observers have commented that there may well be a situation where the country meets its NDC target without significant reductions in the non-LULUCF sector. Brazil is planning to increase its oil and gas production by 36 per cent from 2023 levels by 2035, for instance. 

Considering IEA’s 2023 data on CO2 emissions produced by oil and natural gas for Brazil, 490 million tonnes of CO2 emissions will be added to the atmosphere by 2035. This begs the question whether or not Brazil can do more to adequately address the domestic pathway to contribute to the global 1.5℃ goal.

UAE and Brazil who form two-thirds of the COP troika (consisting of UAE, Brazil and Azerbaijan) are projected to increase their combined oil and gas production by 32 per cent from 2023 levels by 2035, according to a report by Oil Change International (2024).

Therein lies a contradiction where both countries have produced an improved target from their previous NDCs but on the other hand, substantial investments in fossil fuels are planned over the next decade.