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The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has been tracking the cyclogenesis of Cyclone Fengal in the Bay of Bengal since last week, has announced that the cyclone formation shall conclude by tomorrow, November 27.
In a routine weather bulletin, the IMD mentioned today that the weather system which had been categorised as a depression ( a low pressure area) has now been upgraded as ‘deep depression’.
“Various environmental features (higher sea surface temperature, warm moist air incursion into the core, high ocean thermal energy, moderate wind shear, favourable MJO & Equatorial Rossby Waves) are indicating a favourable environment for further intensification of the system till 28th November,” the IMD bulletin stated.
Navigating the position of the turbulent weather system, the IMD noted that the deep depression is presently circling around 310 kilometres (km) southeast of Trincomalee, 590 km south-southeast of Nagappattinam, 710 km south-southeast of Puducherry and 800 km south-southeast of Chennai.
While it is meteorologically difficult to ascertain the actual location of the landfall at such an early stage of cyclogenesis, the IMD mentioned: “There is still divergence among various models with respect to landfall and peak intensification. However, all models are indicating gradual weakening of the system and also slow movement near the Tamil Nadu coast.”
Hence, it is inferred that Cyclone Fengal would probably make a landfall along the Tamil Nadu coast with Sri Lanka also expected to face turbulent weather later this week.
The highly probable formation of Cyclone Fengal would be the second cyclone in the Bay in two months, the first being Cyclone Dana which made a landfall in Odisha on October 25, 2024, bringing severe winds and heavy rainfall that pummelled the coastal region.
Cyclone Dana was the third cyclonic storm and second severe cyclonic storm of the 2024 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.