Energy and agriculture sectors lead emissions in India’s latest greenhouse gas inventory

On December 30, India submitted its fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, containing the greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory for 2020.

The report stated that India’s overall emissions decreased by 7.93 per cent in 2020 compared to 2019 — an unusual occurrence for a developing country with growing energy needs. This decline in emissions can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, which stalled most economic activity worldwide in 2020. Globally, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions declined by 5.4 per cent that year.

The BUR follows India’s third National Communication (TNC), submitted in 2023, which showed that India’s overall GHG emissions rose by 5 per cent in 2019 compared to 2016 levels. TNCs and BURs provide periodic updates on countries’ progress regarding their national climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Historical trends

In 2020, total GHG emissions (including land use, land use change and forestry, or LULUCF) decreased by 7.93 per cent from 2019, falling from 2,647 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e) to 2,437 MtCO₂e.

Excluding the impact of LULUCF, GHG emissions fell by 5.52 per cent over the same period. This decline contrasts with previous years, during which India’s emissions grew by an average of 3.35 per cent annually between 2016 and 2019 (excluding LULUCF).

Despite the drop in 2020, historical analysis shows that total emissions have steadily increased over the decades. Between 1994 and 2020, emissions (including LULUCF) rose by 98.3 per cent. Compared to India’s first BUR in 2010, the percentage increase is 29.4 per cent.

Excluding LULUCF, emissions increased by 13.5 per cent compared to the second BUR in 2014 and 4.2 per cent compared to the third BUR in 2016.

Energy, agriculture and IPPU significant contributors

In 2020, the energy sector was the largest contributor to GHG emissions, accounting for 2,238 MtCO₂e — a 6 per cent decrease from 2019. Between 2016 and 2019, emissions from this sector grew by an average of 3.72 per cent annually.

The energy sector alone was responsible for nearly 92 per cent of CO₂ emissions. Within this, energy industries accounted for 56 per cent of total emissions, followed by manufacturing (17 per cent) and transport (13.28 per cent).

The agriculture sector contributed 406 MtCO₂e of GHG emissions in 2020, representing 13.72 per cent of overall emissions (excluding LULUCF). These emissions, primarily methane and nitrous oxide, were largely generated by animal husbandry and crop production.

Major sources included enteric fermentation or livestock emissions (54.84 per cent), rice production (16.68 per cent), agricultural soils (23.26 per cent) and manure management (3.22 per cent).

GHG emissions from the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector arise from industrial activities that transform raw materials through chemical or physical processes. This includes industries such as cement, lime, glass, ammonia and metal production.

In 2020, IPPU sector emissions accounted for 8.06 per cent of total GHG emissions, amounting to 239 MtCO₂e — a 9.48 per cent reduction from 2019. The decrease is attributed to reduced production of lime, aluminium, nitric acid and soda ash.

However, emissions from chemical industries increased significantly, rising by 73.76 per cent to 33 MtCO₂e, while metal industry emissions fell by 53.29 per cent to 24 MtCO₂e.

Net sink increased for LULUCF, while waste emissions rose

LULUCF sector remains the sole absorber of carbon dioxide. According to the BUR, the sector removed 22 per cent of the country’s CO₂ emissions in 2020. Net emissions from LULUCF stood at -522 MtCO₂e, confirming its status as a net sink, with a 7.5 per cent increase from 2019. On average, the country’s carbon sink has grown by 12.8 per cent with each assessment between 2000 and 2020.

This increased absorption is primarily attributed to the inclusion of a new sink category, Harvested Wood Products. Grasslands, however, continue to be the only source of emissions within this category. Notably, emissions from deforestation were not mentioned in the report. India’s total carbon stock between 2015 and 2020 is reported to be 7,244 MtC.

Emissions in the waste sector mainly stem from microbiological processes in organic waste and the anaerobic treatment of domestic and industrial wastewater. In 2020, the waste sector accounted for just 2.56 per cent of GHG emissions. In absolute terms, it emitted 76 MtCO₂e, representing a 3.35 per cent increase from 2019.

This aligns with trends observed in previous years, where emissions from waste rose by 2.12 per cent between 2017 and 2019. Nearly three-quarters of these emissions originated from wastewater treatment and discharge.

Has India made progress towards its climate goals?

The emissions intensity of India’s gross domestic product or GDP reduced by 36 per cent compared to 2005 levels in 2020, the report stated. This aligns with India’s NDC target of a 45 per cent reduction by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. 

Furthermore, it highlights that India has continued to decouple its economic growth from GHG emissions, as echoed in the Economic Survey of India 2023–24. It is important to note that decoupling can be absolute or relative. Given the projected growth of the Indian economy, achieving absolute decoupling and long-term climate commitments remains a challenging task.

The BUR also reported that, as of October 2024, non-fossil sources constituted 45.52 per cent of the installed capacity for electricity generation. The total installed capacity from renewable sources, including large hydro, was 203.22 gigawatts. However, as of November 2024, coal accounted for approximately 71.75 per cent of power generation, while solar and wind combined contributed only about 12.4 per cent.

Lastly, the update highlighted the creation of an additional carbon sink of 2.29 billion tonnes of CO2e between 2005 and 2021, attributed to increased forest and tree cover. The 18th India State of Forests Report corroborates these findings. 

However, experts have raised concerns that biodiversity-rich forests and those in eco-sensitive areas have declined despite the incremental increase in forest and tree cover. Furthermore, mangroves, which play a vital role in carbon sequestration, have also shrunk.