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Heavy rainfall continues to throw normalcy out of gear in Rajasthan. So far, there has been 39 per cent more rainfall than normal in the state in the ongoing monsoon season. Notably, the arid western part of Rajasthan has received 58 per cent more rainfall than usual.
The most surprising rainfall statistics are recorded from Jaisalmer district, which is located deep within the Thar Desert. The surge in precipitation has led to Jaisalmer registering itself as the eighth wettest district in the country. Otherwise, it is known to be the seventh driest.
Jaisalmer has witnessed the highest rainfall in northern India, after Uttarakhand’s Bageshwar.
Jaisalmer is notable in that the rainfall here is among the lowest during the southwest monsoon, except for the cold desert regions of Kargil and Leh and the semi-arid districts of Tamil Nadu. In the southwest monsoon, the average rainfall is 10.4 mm in Kargil, 26 mm in Leh, 67.3 mm in Thoothukudi, 92.5 mm in Tirunelveli, 132.1 mm in Ramanathapuram, and 172.7 mm in Tenkasi. Following these, Jaisalmer’s average rainfall is 176.9 mm.
From June 1 to August 11, 2024, Jaisalmer has received 134 per cent more rainfall than the normal. The highest rainfall in the country has been in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, with 406 per cent, followed by South West Khasi Hills (256 per cent), Bageshwar (177 per cent), Puducherry (162 per cent), Devbhoomi Dwarka (161 per cent), Viluppuram and Virudhunagar (145 per cent), and Jaisalmer in eighth place.
From June 1 to August 11, Jaisalmer’s average rainfall is 110.8 mm. But this year, it has reached 259.9 mm. For the entire monsoon season, the average rainfall in Jaisalmer is 176.9 mm, which means there has been 68 per cent more rainfall compared to the typical monsoon season. The rainfall has been so intense that even the walls of the Sonar Fort, which is a hallmark of Jaisalmer, have collapsed.
Considering the annual rainfall, Jaisalmer usually receives the least amount of rain compared to other districts in the Thar Desert, with an average of 182 mm. This means that the rainfall from June 1 to August 11 is 70 per cent more than the total annual rainfall.
Break from the past
Four districts of Rajasthan cover approximately 119,886 square kilometres of the Thar Desert (also known as the Great Indian Desert). Of these, about one-third of the land, or 32 per cent, is in Jaisalmer. Additionally, 19 per cent lies in Jodhpur, 24 per cent in Barmer, and 25 per cent in Bikaner.
A study published in January 2024 analysed droughts in Rajasthan’s districts between 1901 and 2019. According to the study, Jaisalmer has experienced the most droughts, totaling 35 times.
This is followed by Jalore with 29, Barmer with 27, and Sirohi, Pali, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, and Barmer with more than 20 each. Droughts occurred 19 times in Nagaur, Hanumangarh, Churu, and Bikaner during the period from 1901 to 2019.
However, in recent years, drought-affected districts have been receiving so much rainfall that floods have started occurring. The most significant changes are seen in Jaisalmer, where this trend has been evident almost every year since 2015. In 2015, Jaisalmer saw 90 per cent more rainfall than usual. The normal monsoon season rainfall in the district is officially considered as 158.4 mm, but that year, it was 301.5 mm.
In 2016, Jaisalmer experienced 12 per cent less rainfall than normal, with 138.9 mm compared to 158.4 mm.
However, a year later, in 2017, Jaisalmer again recorded 43 per cent more rainfall than normal at 226.1 mm compared to the usual 158.4 mm.
That year, western Rajasthan as a whole experienced 39 per cent more rainfall than usual. Notably, Jalore saw 126 per cent more, Barmer 91 per cent, and Pali 76 per cent more rainfall. It was the year when the desert regions of Rajasthan experienced floods for the first time in many areas.
In 2018, Jaisalmer received 30 per cent less rainfall than normal. However, in 2019, eastern Rajasthan experienced more rainfall compared to western Rajasthan during the monsoon season. Nevertheless, Jalore received 33 per cent more, Pali 54 per cent, Nagaur 52 per cent, and Jodhpur 45 per cent more rainfall than usual. That year, Jaisalmer saw average rainfall.
In 2020, western Rajasthan again received more rainfall than normal, and Jaisalmer experienced 55 per cent more rainfall. Jaisalmer was the second district in western Rajasthan with the highest rainfall after Jodhpur. During the monsoon season, Jaisalmer received 252 mm of rain, while the normal rainfall, according to the meteorological department, was 162.1 mm.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) made an alteration in the normal rainfall figures in 2020.
Previously, the average rainfall from 1961 to 2010 was considered normal. However, in 2020, the average rainfall from 1971 to 2020 was used to determine normal rainfall. Due to increased rainfall in Jaisalmer in recent years, the normal rainfall figure was revised from 158.4 mm to 162.1 mm.
RS Sharma, the head of IMD Rajasthan, told Down To Earth that the long Period average (LPA), also called as normal rainfall, is revised every 10 years. While changes to the rainfall figures in Rajasthan were made in 2020, comprehensive analysis of the data led to the release of new LPA figures in 2022. This adjustment was made for all districts in Rajasthan.
The trend of increased rainfall continued in Jaisalmer in 2021. During that year’s monsoon season, Jaisalmer received 273.5 mm of rain, which was 69 per cent more than the normal 162.1 mm.
In 2022, Jaisalmer experienced even more rainfall. The monsoon season saw 346.7 mm of rain, while the meteorological centre in Jaipur reported the normal rainfall for the season as 176.9 mm. Thus, Jaisalmer received almost double the normal rainfall, or 96 per cent more. This indicates a 12 per cent increase in the average rainfall over the decade.
In 2023, western Rajasthan experienced 42 per cent more rainfall than normal, but Jaisalmer received rainfall close to the average. That year, Jaisalmer saw 202.6 mm of rain, which was 15 per cent more than the normal 176.9 mm.