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Roughly only 4 per cent out of the 1,500 climate policies have succeeded in cutting emissions across the world, according to a new study.
The 63 successful climate policies resulted in total emission reductions between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, read the paper published in the journal Science.
In India, the study found no successful climate policies that helped to achieve the necessary scale of emissions reductions.
Some of the climate policies evaluated in the study include energy-related building codes to purchase subsidies for climate-friendly products and carbon taxes across four sectors: Buildings, electricity, industry and transport.
Meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate goal of limiting global average temperature increase to “well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C” hinges on the implementation of effective climate policies at the national level, the paper read.
“We systematically evaluated policy measures that have rarely been studied until now, providing new insights into well-designed combinations of complementary policy instruments. From this, we derive best practices for building, electricity, industry and transport sectors, and in both industrialised countries and often neglected developing countries,” lead author Nicolas Koch from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, said in a statement.
Koch and colleagues identified 1,500 climate policies implemented between 1998 and 2022 across 41 countries from six continents, which contributed to 81 per cent of total global emissions in 2019.
They analysed data from the climate policy database of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. They then compared changes in outcomes over time between a group exposed to the intervention (climate policy) and a group that was not. Finally, the team evaluated the impact of each policy on emissions across different regions and periods.
They found that the right mix of measures was crucial. For example, subsidies or regulations, combined with price-based instruments such as carbon and energy taxes, offer the best outcome in lowering substantial emissions.
For instance, bans on coal-fired power plants or combustion engine cars alone did not result in major emissions reductions. But the results were best combined with tax or price incentives, as shown in the United Kingdom for coal-fired power generation or in Norway for cars.
However, this does not apply everywhere. The study highlighted that in developing countries, pricing was less effective. This means these nations need initial regulatory and subsidy measures.
“While it remains challenging to precisely disentangle the effects of individual measures within a policy mix, our 63 success cases provide systematic insights into effective policy combinations and show how well-designed policy mixes depend on sectors and the development level of countries,” lead author Annika Stechemesser from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in a statement.
This knowledge, she added, is vital for supporting policymakers and society in the transition to climate neutrality.