Shared prosperity for people & planet: New research shows pathways amid shrinking safe spaces

The planet's ability to provide for all human needs is being severely stretched, with current resource use threatening to exceed critical limits, scientists warned in a new report.

The research, published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health, was conducted by over sixty natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission. It is still possible for all humans to escape poverty and avoid harm from environmental changes — if Earth’s resources are managed more equitably and urgent transformations in economic systems and technologies are implemented, the report highlighted.

Led by Professors Joyeeta Gupta, Xuemei Bai, and Diana Liverman, the study builds on previous work published in the journal Nature, which identified 'safe and just earth system boundaries'.

These boundaries define the limits within which people and nature can thrive. However, the new paper introduces the concept of a 'safe and just space', a zone where human and environmental needs are balanced, but warns that this space will diminish by 2050 unless significant changes are made.

Shrinking 'safe and just space'

The 'safe and just space' identified in the study represents a balanced zone, where harm to humans and nature is minimised while all individuals are provided for. This zone is established between an upper 'ceiling' — the Earth System Boundaries that keep the planet stable and resilient — and a lower 'foundation', which ensures every person can live a life free from poverty.

By combining these two elements, the report uniquely quantifies both safety (a stable planet) and justice (equitable resource distribution) in the same terms, demonstrating that justice is essential for both planetary and human safety.

Scientists projected that if current trends continue, the 'safe and just space' will shrink dramatically by 2050. Specifically, they found that for climate stability, the space could vanish entirely.

This alarming projection implied that even if all human beings had access only to the resources required for a basic standard of living, the Earth could still exceed its climate boundaries. The research highlighted that this would leave Earth systems vulnerable to tipping points, leading to significant harm worldwide unless energy, food and urban systems are urgently reformed.

The report further identifies that inequalities and overconsumption by a minority are major factors driving the shrinking of the 'safe and just space'.

Providing minimum resources to those who currently lack them would add significantly less pressure on the Earth system compared to the resource use by wealthier individuals and groups who consume far more.

Addressing inequality: Path to stability

Joyeeta Gupta, professor of environment and development in the global south at the University of Amsterdam, emphasised the importance of addressing inequality. “We’re beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth," she stated. "Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature."

The research demonstrated that the most vulnerable communities, already facing poverty, are often the hardest hit by climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and water shortages. This is a stark reminder that while all of humanity is at risk, the effects are disproportionately felt by those who are least responsible for causing them.

“For the first time, scientists have quantified safety and justice using the same units in order to determine the path forward to a stable and resilient future in which we can all thrive. This paper shows that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people.”

Call for urgent transformations

To preserve the 'safe and just space', the study called for transformative changes across three key areas:

• Economic and policy reform: There must be coordinated efforts among policymakers, businesses, civil society and communities to push for economic reforms that reduce inequality and decrease environmental pressures. This includes creating new policies and funding mechanisms that incentivise sustainable practices.

• Resource management: More effective management, sharing and use of resources at all levels of society are crucial. This involves reducing the excess consumption of resources by some communities to ensure equitable access to essentials for all.

• Sustainable technologies: Investment in sustainable, affordable technologies is vital to minimise resource use and keep the 'safe and just space' open. Without such advancements, there is a high risk that certain boundaries will be crossed irreversibly.

“Any efforts to protect the planet must take into account the needs of the millions of people that don’t even have access to the basics right now," said Diana Liverman, a regents professor of geography, development and environment at the University of Arizona and a former co-lead of the Earth Commission's transformations working group. "Now decision makers need to implement policies and activities that can address inequality while reducing pressure on nature and climate.”

The report also stressed the role of cities and businesses as stewards of Earth’s natural resources. By adopting science-based targets and aligning with the 'safe and just space' principles, local actors can significantly reduce their environmental impact and contribute to global sustainability goals.

“Companies and cities have a huge potential to make a difference, especially if they work towards the same goal — ensuring the planet can provide for everyone long-term," Xuemei Bai, distinguished professor at the Australian National University, noted. "They are more nimble and flexible than states, and can reduce their pressure on the planet by setting science-based targets in line with our findings.”