The most difficult challenge in dealing with wildfires’ rising threat is to prepare for risk levels never experienced before: Kaitlyn Trudeau

Both the Palisades and Eaton fires broke out on January 7, 2025, in Los Angeles, United States. As of January 23, 70 per cent and 95 per cent of the fires have been contained, burning more than 23,000 and 14,000 acres of land in Palisades and Eaton, respectively, as per data from California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

The second set of fires — Hughes Fire, Sepulveda Fire, and Clay fire, began on January 22, 21 and 23, each burning more than 10,000, 40 and 39 acres, respectively. Preliminary estimates suggest that there have been 28 fatalities and over 15,000 structures have been destroyed.

Down to Earth speaks with Kaitlyn Trudeau, Senior Research Associate, Climate Science at Climate Central, a non-profit organisation in the United States about how climate change makes wildfires worse.

Rohini Krishnamurthy (RK): What fuelled the wildfires in LA? What role has climate change played?

Kaitlyn Trudeau (KT): Rainfall in Southern California has been far below normal, which contributed to the risks of fires intensifying and spreading fast, even in January. And while the seasonal wildfire risks have historically peaked by now, conditions that enable fires to grow like the ones in Los Angeles can occur at almost any time.

RK: How have wildfires changed in California in the last decade? Do you see any common trends or patterns? Do you see the same patterns emerge across the globe as well or in any other part of the world?

KT: Of the 10 largest fires in California history, nine happened within the last decade. And like most of the western US, California now sees significantly more days per year when conditions amplify the risk of dangerous wildfires. We refer to those conditions as fire weather, when high winds, high temperatures, and low humidity combine to allow wildfires to rapidly expand. Rising temperatures play a significant role in the proliferation of fire weather days, and although our research has focused on the US, our partner World Weather Attribution has found that fire weather is increasing on every continent.

RK: Do you think wildfire carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are emerging as the biggest CO2 emitters globally, and in the US?

KT: Although greenhouse gas emissions related to wildfires contribute to CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere, especially during historic fire seasons, the primary source of heat-trapping pollution remains the burning of fossil fuels.

RK: Has it become more challenging to fight wildfires over the last decade? If yes, what explains this?

KT: Many factors have made it more difficult to prevent and fight wildfires, including the growing numbers of high-risk days when fires can quickly burn out of control. In many places the sharp rise of minimum temperatures, which typically happen overnight, have changed fire behaviour by allowing them to burn and grow overnight. That stretches firefighting crews’ capacity, sometimes to the point of exhaustion. Additionally, wildfire season in many places is months longer than it was a generation ago, which further increases demand for people and equipment to fight fires. That also reduces opportunities to safely conduct prescribed burns, limiting a way to reduce grasses and brush that otherwise provide fuel to fast-moving fires. Worse, California has been experiencing a phenomenon called ‘hydroclimate whiplash’, where weather conditions lurch from wet seasons that accelerate plant growth to hot, dry seasons that kill off that growth and turn it into kindling, leaving the landscape primed to burn.

RK: If wildfires continue at this rate, what is the world bracing for in terms of risks and how should we tackle this challenge going forward?

KT: The most difficult challenge in dealing with the rising threat of wildfires might be preparing for risk levels that no one has ever experienced. That puts pressure on governments and communities to adapt to conditions they have never seen, to create fire safety policies and evacuation plans for places that have never needed them, and to educate residents about dangers they have never faced. And until carbon pollution is finally reduced to zero and global temperatures stop rising, their influence on the growing risk of wildfires will continue to make more places less liveable.