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Israel's 15-month war on Gaza has caused unprecedented loss of lives and infrastructure, and has also led to massive greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from direct war activities. The latter is estimated to be higher than what 36 countries and territories emit in an entire year, according to a report.
The findings of the study War on the Climate published by researchers from Queen Mary University of London, Lancaster University, and others are sobering. The war emitted a staggering 1.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) from direct combat activities alone.
When emissions from pre-war fortifications and anticipated post-war reconstruction are included, the total climbs to over 32.2 million tCO2e —surpassing the annual emissions of more than 102 individual countries.
“These calculations point to the urgent need for increased visibility and mandatory reporting of military emissions for both war and peacetime,” the authors argued.
The report published in the Social Science Research Network identified three temporal phases of conflict-related emissions: pre-conflict, active conflict, and post-conflict reconstruction. Each phase contributed significantly to the region's carbon footprint.
Pre-conflict: Long before the first bomb fell in October 2023, emissions were already being generated. The construction of Hamas’s extensive tunnel network and Israel’s 65 km-long “Iron Wall” security barrier involved massive volumes of concrete and steel — both highly carbon-intensive materials. Pre-conflict emissions from these constructions totalled 557,359 tCO2e.
Active conflict: The war’s direct carbon toll was measured at 1,898,330.9 tCO2e, generated by a combination of aerial bombardment, ground assaults, rocket fire, vehicle movement and even the logistics of humanitarian aid.
Key sources include:
Cargo deliveries (by air and sea): 555,777 tCO2e
Israeli aerial sorties and bombings: 252,490.6 tCO2e
Ground vehicle operations: 47,838.2 tCO2e
Artillery and bomb usage by Israel Defense Forces: 78,306 tCO2e
Rocket fire by Hamas: 925.9 tCO2e
Fuel use for electricity in Gaza: 131,791.4 tCO2e
Aid truck deliveries: 817,436 tCO2e
The study also considered regional escalations involving Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen, adding another 9,474.9 tCO2e to the conflict’s carbon footprint.
Post-conflict: The most significant source of emissions, however, will come from reconstructing Gaza. The region has suffered catastrophic destruction, with estimates suggesting 54-66 per cent of Gaza’s buildings have been damaged or destroyed.
The carbon cost of rebuilding homes, roads, and infrastructure — including debris removal — is expected to emit 29.75 million tCO2e, with rebuilding homes in Gaza alone accounting for 26.86 million tCO2e. This is equivalent to the annual emissions of countries like Croatia, the study notes.
The researchers argued that traditional emissions accounting frameworks fail to capture the full climate impact of armed conflict. Current UN climate reporting obligations are voluntary and do not require countries to report military emissions separately.
To address this, the study proposes an expanded framework — “Scope 3+” — that goes beyond direct and indirect emissions to include conflict-specific sources such as:
Destruction of infrastructure
Human displacement and aid delivery
Fuel use in conflict zones
Post-war reconstruction
Damage to ecosystems, fires and debris
They also cite the inadequacy of emissions data from countries like Israel, which does not include military fuel combustion in its national reports to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Using a proxy based on military spending, the authors estimated Israel’s military budget in 2023 alone could have generated 3.85 million tCO2e, about 5 per cent of its national total.
The authors of the report raised critical concerns about the broader implications of unaccounted wartime emissions on global climate goals. Military activity, including from war and preparation for war, is estimated to contribute up to 5.5 per cent of global GHG emissions, more than global civil aviation or shipping.
Yet, despite warnings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is rapidly shrinking, emissions from military conflict remain mostly invisible in international climate negotiations and national inventories.
“Clearly, Scope 3+ would be a significant step forward in our ability to understand and analyse the climate impacts of war,” the authors of the study noted.
The report concluded with a call for mandatory reporting of military and conflict-related emissions under the UNFCCC, adoption of the Scope 3+ framework by militaries worldwide and stronger efforts by researchers and civil society to highlight the climate consequences of war.