Defence of science

"...Distinguished scientists, this session of the Science Congress is taking place at a time when our national security, as also global security, are facing extraordinary challenges from terrorism. The horrendous incidents of September 11 in the United States and the outrageous terrorist attacks on the Jammu and Kashmir legislature on October 1 and Parliament on December 13 are barbaric manifestations of the same challenge. The entire peace-loving humanity is today thinking of how to secure the world from this menace.

"In our national and global battle against terrorism, we look to scientists and technologists for help. We know that terrorist network have been trying to master advances in science and technology to pose new threats to the civilised world. The only way we can stop them in their tracks is by building even more powerful collaborative networks among all those government agencies and non-government institutions committed to defending peace and human values.

"Today , after participating in this function, I proceed to Kathmandu to take part in the SAARC summit. It is unfortunate that our neighbourhood in South Asia has emerged, in recent years, as the principal source of international terrorism and religious extremism. Since India has been its principal victim for many years, we have resolved to fight terrorism to the finish. We shall succeed in this fight. I have no doubt about it. Let no one have any doubt about it.

"I would like to appeal to all the scientists, technologists and academics in the countries of South Asia -- join hands to fight terrorism and extremism. Affirm loudly, for one and all to hear, that the function of science was to help, and not to hurt humanity; that the purpose of technology is creation, not destruction. Close your ranks to help the larger struggle to rid our region of tension and hostilities.

P M BHARGAWA
former director, Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad
The scientific advisors are too scared to take any constructive step. So it does not matter whether they are from the defence field. In no way is this conference representative of the excellence of Indian scientific research. Bringing scientists together does not ensure a better and more accessible health care system. We can see that the present health system is a disaster. But even within the existing framework it is possible to take care of the health requirements of the people. It has been demonstrated in Maharashtra that 95 per cent of the ailments can be taken care at the local level and only five per cent need specialist care. At the cost of a mere Rs 150 per person per year, it is possible to take care of health of Indians. Clearly, we have the solutions but we do not implement them. The health issues do not galvanise the government into action.

P K SETH
director, Industrial Toxicology Reseach Centre, Lucknow
It is evident that we are not prepared to meet the health requirements of the country. The rural areas just do not have health care facilities. More money is obviously required. Funds should be enhanced and implications of environmental problems should also be studied. It is necessary that we have proper investment, proper data and trained people. Basic research is important and this has to be done by the government.

VIDYANAND NANJUNDIAH
professor, department of molecular reproduction, development and genetics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
The government has a huge financial stake in the pursuit of scientific research. Society, as a whole, has an even larger in health and education. The Prime Minister should have seized the opportunity to articulate his views on how to use scientific approaches in meeting these demands. Instead he focused on terrorism. It was a wrong occasion to express such sentiments. The PM could have called for a war on the unhygienic conditions, lack of drinking water and on the sad state of medical care for the underprivileged. He could have sensitized the country to the disaster in store if we persist with the current course. A disaster that will make nonsense of every other plan that he has - including the plan to eradicate terrorism. To be sure he did speak about supporting agriculture-related research by bringing in biotechnology and information technology - our latest mantras. But one gets the impression that the main thrust of his speech was on terrorism. What he chose not to say was an opportunity missed.

ARUN KUMAR ATTRI
professor, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Indian Science Congress is a mela where people gather to chase awards. Last year's theme was on infrastructural issues but without accomplishing it, we continue to change the theme. One should realise that terrorism is a result of bad infrastructure. Biotechnology research in India is third rate and is nowhere in the world map. The reason for this pathetic condition of scientific research in India is over promise and no accountability. There is no yardstick to measure scientists either by the funding agencies or the government.

SHOBHIT MAHAJAN
professor, department of physics and astrophysics, University of Delhi
An annual ritual which must surely rank amongst the most non-productive meetings of science. Similar meetings are held in other countries too. But nowhere is the focus so diffuse and the platform used by a set of scientific bureaucrats to hog the limelight. We have the distinction of having possibly the second largest human resource base in science and technology. Yet, the quality of our science is pathetic. By and large, the scientists are demotivated by lack of infrastructure, a creative environment and genuine appreciation of their work. We need to encourage the huge numbers of scientific workers who work in smaller institutions to be more active in their fields. Replacing the Indian Science Congress with smaller, regional or even state level meetings may provide some hope in the otherwise bleak scenario.

S S KATIYAR
vice chancellor, CSJM University, Kanpur
Funds given to health care are not sufficient. It is not possible to carry out worthwhile research with this kind of funding. At least six per cent of the total budget should be devoted to health care The delegates did not focus on defence at the conference. People from the defence background, in fact, spoke about non-military uses of military research.

R D LELE
honorary chief physician, Jaslok Hospital, Mumbai
On paper there are excellent plans but their implementaion is zero. The scientists have to control the politicians and ensure that health plans are implemnted. At the same time money has to be spent on defence. Every country has a debate between funds for health and defence. Defence cannot be neglected totally.

C M GUPTA
director, Central Drug Research Institute, Lucknow
The money allocated to health research is not sufficient but considering the unfortunate situation in the country, it is important that money is spent on defence research. As the scientists who spoke at the conference are eminent people in their field they have presented a correct picture of the research in the country.

LALJI SINGH
director, Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad
Unlike health, defence in India is treated as a major mission. It is provided with unlimited funds and no questions are asked about how the money is spent. There is no need to cut down on the defence funds as we cannot compromise on this front. But the research carried out in the field of defence can be used by general public. Space research can be beneficial to both health and agriculture. Money spent on defence should also focus on these two aspects.

THE crisis is staring us in the face. Two-wheelers will drive the fate of Asia's clean air challenge. The question now is in what direction will technology move in ? One option is to continue improving the conventional two and three-wheeler engines to ensure they meet the emission standards today and tomorrow. The challenge is to find a breakthrough, which is environment-friendly, meets the future emission norms, meets them easily and yet is competitively priced. Some existing technologies vie for this slot. But many experts see them as just incremental gains. They smell like the design of a myopic industry. The answer, they say, lies in looking beyond the dinosaur.

Injecting life
Manufacturers of two-stroke believe one technology that can salvage their product is the fuel injection systems which will replace the 'carburettor'. But this system is prohibitively costly today. It can achieve the desired results but the price to be paid is too high. The two-wheelers have always been the cheap source of conveyance for Asia. If their prices sky rocket the average Asian will be divested of this comfort.

The fuel injection system is able to deal with the inherent problem of the standard carburettor-based two-stroke engine. Direct fuel injection in a two-stroke engine promises to reduce the deadly particulate matter as it is expected to eliminate both the partially burnt or un-burned fuel and oil from the exhaust. Application of this technology could even increase the life of the catalytic converters to meet even tighter standards.

Both China and Taiwan are researching fuel injection systems. Taiwan's Industrial Technology Research Institute has developed what it calls 'an engine management system', which will be applied to four-stroke engines in 2004. The attempt made by Bajaj Auto Ltd in 1990s to use fuel-injection system is a perfect example of why it is impractical to use this technology immedaitely in India. Bajaj had teemed up with Australia-based Orbital Engine Corporation Limited to try its fuel injection system called Orbital Combustion Process (OCP) in small scooters. Prototypes were supplied to Bajaj. Orbital also carried out tests with other two-wheeler companies in India. The test results were quite promising. In fact, when used in a prototype scooter without catalytic converter, emissions were found to be far less than that proposed for 2009. But none of the initiatives led to a marketable product because the deal became too expensive to carry through. Ken Johnsen, executive director of Orbital Engine Corporation, says, "In India meeting keeping the costs down was a must." Evidently, the current fuel injection systems are nowhere near being the perfect replacement for the earlier systems.

Is two times two better?
Having burnt its fingers with experiments like the one with OCP, the automakers have instead shifted on to four-stroke engines. In fact, in India, 65 per cent of the new fleet now runs on four-stroke technology. It's better than the two-stroke devil but has its own problems. While most emissions from the four-stroke engine are low, higher nitrogen oxides are emitted. Iyer says, "Four-stroke nitrogen oxide emissions compared to two-strokes are higher." Peter Ahlvik of Ecotraffic, a Sweden-based consultative organisation on vehicle technology, while conducting a study for the cse, has warned that four-stroke engines in future might have to rely on three-way catalytic converters, which so far are an expensive option. As of now four-stroke engines in the market come without catalytic converters, except for a few models. With a growing number of four-stroke engines on road the nitrogen oxides emissions promise to act as a roadblock to four-stroke becoming the cleaner alternative.

Leapfrog
The way ahead then lies in travelling elsewhere than down the beaten track. Alternate fuels are one simple yet easy direction to move towards. This is what the automakers must vie for - to get their scooters, motorcycles to run on cleaner gaseous fuels. Riding piggyback on alternate fuels, like compressed natural gas (CNG) can help greatly reduce pollution. At least in critically polluted areas alternate fuels can help overcome the hurdles that the conventional fuel technology poses. Alternate fuels have a better chance of working in the short run where the conventional route looks uncertain.

The CNG conversion programme for three-wheelers underway in Delhi under Supreme Court's directives is proof of alternative fuels' success in taming the yet unbridled dirty dragons. N V Iyer asserts, the CNG autos have achieved emissions levels far better than what the industry has proposed for 2009 (see graph: Clear winner). Carbon monoxide levels are more than 80 per cent lower and hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides nearly 58 per cent lower than the SIAM's proposed limits for 2009.

Says Iyer, "CNG vehicle emissions meet the 2009 emission norms suggested by SIAM. The carbon monoxide emissions from the CNG three-wheelers are low as CNG is a clean burning fuel. It is the use of a cleaner fuel which has lowered emissions."

If it can happen in Delhi, it is possible in Pakistan and it is possible in Dhaka. The CNG autos in Delhi prove that using diverse vehicular fuels makes sense, both, economically and environmentally, for Asian countries that have their reserves of gas. The manufacturers, under pressure to show better emission results, stand to gain just as much as a customer looking to get their money's worth. Two alternative fuels that have taken off in Asia are CNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Three-wheelers in Bangkok, Tuk Tuk, have been running on LPG for 20 years. Conversion of two and three-wheelers to CNG has already begun in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Bajaj is developing an LPG three-wheeler, LPG two-wheelers and TVS Motor Compnay is ready with its bi-fuel LPG scooter. It's the complacency of an inert government that denies these models to compete with their dirtier cousins - the petrol-based two and four stroke engines. In the absence of an official road map for alternative fuel technology, the efforts are unable to translate into market successes. The potential in Asian countries such as Bangladesh is huge. But the opportunity is far from being utilised. "Progress has been extremely tardy largely because of lack of investment, inadequate infrastructure and absence of sound regulatory mechanism," says Michael P Walsh. Ground zero
While alternate fossil fuels may reduce emissions and bring them to minimal, ultimately a leapfrog to zero emission technology will be the key. Only zero emission vehicles can neutralise the effect of uncontrolled growth of two and three-wheeled vehicles. Powering two and three-wheelers with fuel cells may be considered science fiction in Asia but they can certainly be tomorrow's benign horses replacing the existing deadly fleets. In fact even while research on fuel cells continues, electric vehicles can be immediately adopted and some efforts are being made in this direction.

Making strides in this direction is again Taiwan. It has ordained that at least two per cent of sales from 2001 onwards be of electric scooters. Taiwan already boasts of 20,000 electric scooters on road - the largest such fleet in the world. They are still working aggressively to improve engine performance, reduce weight, increase cruise range and energy efficiency and aim at longer battery life. Battery technology is now the subject of intensive research and development aimed at increasing energy and power density, efficiency, increasing useful life, reducing manufacturing costs and finding substitute for environmentally-unfriendly material such as lead and cadmium.

Countries like Nepal are also making small forays. The Safa tempo programme of electric three wheelers in Kathmandu, is widely recognised and supported by public. In India, Bajaj has developed electric two-wheelers as well as three-wheelers. Mahindra and Mahindra and Scooters India Limited have begun marketing electric three-wheelers. However, as yet, their market penetration remains limited to cities like Delhi and Lucknow.

But these minimal efforts have to lead to a greater change in the mindset. The mindset of the government, which needs to give additional incentives for research in the region as well as fiscal incentives to use zero emission technology. If ways are not found to cushion the cost of the change over to cleaner and better technologies like electrically-powered vehicles the industry will find it hard to break the impasse. "The fiscal support to help opt for hybrids and zero emission technology is missing," says Venu Srinivasan, managing director of the TVS Motor Company, one of India's leading manufacturers, which is making a foray into hybrid scooters.

Uncertainty raises its ugly head when manufacturers take the valiant step to try out experimental technology but have to retreat before costs drown them in the market. Just like Bajaj Auto Ltd did having developed a prototype of its legendary Chetak and Super models with the Orbital fuel injection system. A price leap of more than Rs 5,000 in the retail prices in mid-1990s was commercially unacceptable. The balance gets tilted against alternative technologies with unfavourable taxation, as in the case of battery-operated three-wheelers in India - imposed taxes constitute more than 66 per cent of the total cost of the vehicle.

But the onus does not entirely lie with a lax government. Industry too has failed to show any interest in pushing the government to design fiscal instruments linked to emissions reduction, which could favour application of advanced technology. Unless this laxity is overcome, the leap one wishes Asia to take will remain a technological limp.

THE World Trade Organisation (WTO) regime threatens to shake the Asian market. Today, the market is divided between countries that produce and those that import. But WTO will act as a leveller in the market. Since it disallows trade barriers and ordains uniform laws for domestic manufacturers and the importers, the only way countries can check emissions is with stringent standards. But for countries without emissions standards the future looks bleak: Bangladesh, for example, cannot prevent the influx of inferior products because it does not have any regulations. "Bangladesh is reeling under pollution but does not have emissions standards to guard against polluting imports," says M Iqbal Kabir, advocate at the supreme court of Bangladesh and member of the Bangladesh Environmental Lawyers Association, which is fighting an air pollution case in the court.

Some manufacturers are, however, becoming conscious that environmental regulations can influence access to market. This is evident in the case of Taiwan: its stringent norms protect it from inferior imports. But Taiwanese producers realise this protection is only a short-term one. Shu says, "Taiwan is advancing its research in the small and medium sized scooter." They are now investing in research and development (R&D) to improve technology and raise emission standards. The regional R&D organisations are looking at a variety of advanced technologies. Extending the product lines to higher value added products, such as 250 cc engines, electric fuel injection for two-wheelers and are some of the focal points of the research in Taiwan.

The Chinese threat
Many companies in India perceive a threat from the cheap Chinese imports. Home to more than 200 two-wheeler manufacturers, China produces nearly 12 million two-wheelers every year - almost 54 per cent of the total production in Asia. Enviable economies of scale and state subsidy allow them to under price the product. This can affect Indian industry, which largely caters to the domestic market. Chinese producers will enter either through joint ventures with Indian companies to get the brand advantage or sell components. Companies including Bajaj and Kinetic are already shopping in China for components. And Monto Motors, makers of the Avanti Moped, is reported to have imported couple of hundred Chinese bikes for sales to begin in January.

In India, the only thing that has kept the Chinese 'attack' at abeyance till now is the strict emission standards. The standards might not be good enough to solve the crisis of pollution but they have certainly aided the cause of domestic manufacturers. But this may not be the case in the future. The 100 cc motorbike segment, today dominated by Hero Honda, is expected to be the most vulnerable. Atul Sobti, vice president, Hero Honda, guesstimates that if Chinese succeed in meeting Indian emissions standards and fuel economy requirements and still sells at 30 per cent cheaper rate they could secure nearly 10 per cent of the market share. Under WTO, the Chinese government would have to dismantle the subsidy structure also which may somewhat erode the price advantage but not so much given their economy of scale. Invoking anti-dumping laws could be possible but not easy, feels Sobti. Indian competitors are still putting up a brave front saying that track record is more critical than selling cheap.

Despite being the world leader in emissions standards for two and three wheelers, the industry only grudgingly admits that stringent emissions regulations can help to protect market share of the Indian companies. The Chinese still do not meet the Indian standards - precondition for entry into Indian market. According to market information the current batch of two-wheelers that have arrived in India could pass muster only after fitting catalytic converters.

Rahul Bajaj, chairperson and managing director of Bajaj Auto Ltd, says, "The industry strategy can only be to improve its competitiveness at the product cost, quality and customer service level. The tight emission standards were not set up to deal with import competition. If at all they provide a temporary barrier it is an unintended fallout."

Sobti admits: "For the moment keeping ahead in emission standards can work so far as holding the Chinese at bay is concerned. The Chinese cannot provide products with good track record and consistent quality. But we must not lose sight of the cost effectiveness of incremental environmental benefits."

Quite surely, the incremental benefits cannot be the end all. Public pressure has pushed the automakers and the government to move a step ahead in solving this truly Asian crisis. Srinivasan gives India's example: "The environmental imperative in Delhi has set the agenda for the entire country." And one agrees with Rahul Bajaj when he says that the industry has done much, yet there is a long road ahead. The Asian auto industry has won only small battles. The real war can be fought only if Asia arms itself with information and research on the pollutants that two and three-wheelers emit and wage an informed battle. It is the Asian scientific community and its policymakers, which will have to find solutions that fit the bill. Asian countries can learn from each other's experiences. Bangladesh, for instance, can take a leaf out of the Indian CNG auto casebook and India from Taiwan's progressive strategies. The only way to reach the destination and reach it in time is to leapfrog ahead - think Asian and think ingenous.