Nothing new

Nothing new

Is it possible for the world to reinvent its energy systems? If it has to reduce its emissions by over 80 per cent, the only option it has is to make the transition towards zero-carbon technologies as quickly as possible.

But this is not happening. The January 2007 report of the International Energy Agency (iea) estimates that in 2005, renewable energy's share in the total primary energy supply of the world was just about 13 per cent and falling. Biomass and hydropower constitute the bulk of the renewable energy budget (see graphic). For instance, in India, the share of renewable energy is estimated to be 39 per cent, because of the use of biomass by the poor to cook food and for other purposes. The contribution of new renewable--wind, solar, tidal or geothermal--is as little as 0.5 per cent of the world's primary energy usage. The challenge now is to reverse this trend.

Importantly, renewables are already the third highest contributor to global electricity production--about 18 per cent--after coal and gas. But this is because hydro-electricity generates about 16 per cent of the world's power and roughly 90 per cent of the power from renewable sources.

The market for renewable energy technologies is growing. According to iea, the wind energy sector has seen a growth of 24 per cent per annum and solar 6 per cent per annum between 1990 and 2005. Modern biomass energy, including new technologies that produce ethanol from agricultural wastes and also burning of municipal waste, offer immense potential. But can modern renewable energy become a 'real' player or will it remain, as iea predicts, a marginal contributor--3-5 per cent--to the world's primary energy.

There is very little to time to make a transition. Within the next decade, countries like China and India will have to ratchet up investments in energy systems. They can alter their current investment course to provide new markets that will drive down prices for renewables and provide a huge learning experience.

In solar technology, for instance, it has been found that every doubling of volume manufactured has reduced the cost of the technology by 20 per cent.

Also, in the next decade, the rich world will invest either in renewable energy systems or in technologies to make carbon-based energy systems more efficient. It is now or never for green technology.

The question is who will pay for the initial high costs of this technology transition. In India, where roughly 45 per cent of households do not have access to electricity, it can be argued that distributed generation systems hold the key. iea in its estimate finds that the investment cost of providing electricity per person will vary from as low as us $29 (Rs 1,300) for off-grid diesel power to us $417 (Rs 18,000) for off-grid photovoltaic power (see table Costs of electrifying households in India).
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