Smokestacks lightening?

Emissions are bound to increase. The power sector improves, but others will spew more, especially iron and steel

Last Updated: Sunday 28 June 2015 | 11:25:17 AM

Smokestacks lightening?

imageBusiness as usual

The total ghg emissions from the six sectors will be 3.6 times more than today, growing from 897 million MT (mMT) in 2008-09 to 3,255 mMT in 2030-31.

The per capita emissions from these sectors will increase from 0.8 MT in 2008-09 to 2.2 MT in 2030-31.

In 2008, of total ghg emissions from the six sectors, 63.5 per cent was from the power sector. The other five sectors accounted for the remaining 36.5 per cent. In 2030-31, however, the five sectors will contribute 40.6 per cent. This essentially shows emissions from the five sectors will grow at a higher rate than that in the power sector. Growth in emissions will be highest for the iron and steel sector.

Low carbon

The total ghg emissions will triple, from 897 million MT (mMT) in 2008-09 to 2,668 mMT in 2030-31.

ghg emissions will grow annually at 4.9 per cent between 2008-09 and 2020-21 and then increase to 5.3 per cent from 2020-21 to 2030-31.

The per capita emissions will increase from 0.8 MT in 2008-09 to 1.8 MT in 2030-31.

In this scenario too, ghg emissions from the five sectors will grow at a much faster rate than in the power sector.

In lc, the contribution of the power sector to total ghg emissions will be 57.4 per cent, marginally down from the 2030-31 bau value of 59.4 per cent. In lc, too, the highest growth in emissions will be from the iron and steel.

Low carbon over business as usual

Annual mitigation potential of lc over bau is about 18 per cent in 2030-31—587 million MT CO2e/ annum. This will largely happen because of massively deployed renewable energy technology in the power sector. Cumulative emissions savings, lc over bau, 2008-09 and 2030-31, are about 5,200 mMT CO2e. The highest cumulative ghg emission savings is from the power sector (3,400 mMT), due to the push for renewables.

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