Fossil fuels drive global emissions rise in 2025 despite drop in power sector emissions

In the United States, emissions rose by 48.57 million tonnes CO2e in the first half of 2025
Fossil fuels drive global emissions rise in 2025 despite drop in power sector emissions
More than half of the increase in global fossil fuel emissions came from the United States. iStock
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Summary
  • Despite a decline in power sector emissions, global greenhouse gas emissions rose in the first half of 2025, driven by increased fossil fuel use.

  • Climate TRACE data shows a 0.13 per cent rise in emissions compared to 2024, with the US contributing significantly.

  • The urgency for a shift to clean energy is underscored by international calls to curb fossil fuel reliance.

India’s power sector emissions declined by 0.8 per cent in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period last year, contributing alongside China to the global drop in power sector emissions.

But despite this decrease, global greenhouse gas emissions surged in the first half of 2025, driven mainly by fossil fuel use, according to new data from Climate TRACE released on 28 August 2025. 

Between January and June 2025, global emissions reached 31 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent (BtCO2e), a 0.13 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.

In June alone, global emissions were 5.12 billion tonnes CO2e — 0.29 per cent higher than June 2024. Methane emissions for the month increased to 34.82 million tonnes, marking a 0.49 per cent increase.

Climate TRACE is a coalition of AI specialists, data scientists, researchers, and non-governmental organisations, including Carbon Yield, CTrees, Duke University’s Nicholas Institute, Global Energy Monitor, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, TransitionZero and former US Vice President Al Gore.

Fossil fuel operations were the biggest driver of global emissions growth in the first half of 2025, rising 1.5 per cent — an increase of 77.65 million tonnes of CO2e. More than half of this increase came from the United States, underscoring the country’s heavy reliance on oil, gas, and coal despite global calls for energy transition. 

Emissions from manufacturing rose by 0.3 per cent (18.75 million tonnes of CO2e), primarily due to contributions from India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Brazil. In contrast, worldwide power emissions decreased by 60.27 million tonnes of CO2e, with China experiencing a more significant decline of 1.7 per cent.

According to Climate TRACE, China, Mexico, and Australia made modest progress in decarbonising their economies. However, the emissions rose in other countries, including the United States, India, the European Union, Indonesia and Brazil.

In the United States, emissions rose by 48.57 million tonnes CO2e in the first half of 2025 — a 1.43 per cent increase over the same period last year. Brazil followed with 1.24 per cent increase in emissions (9.84 million tonnes CO2e). India also recorded a smaller increase of 0.21 per cent, adding 4.44 million tonnes CO2e compared to the first half of 2024.

Scientists have repeatedly called for a rapid elimination of fossil fuels and shift to clean energy sources to avert catastrophic climate change and its far-reaching consequences.

The urgency of this transition has been reinforced by a recent advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice, which stated that a government’s failure to curb climate harm through continued fossil fuel production, consumption, licensing or subsidies could amount to an “internationally wrongful act”, exposing states to potential liability.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its sixth assessment report on mitigation in 2022, stressed that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires emissions to peak before 2025 and fall by 43 per cent by 2030. Yet, the world remains off track.

According to the International Energy Agency’s global energy review published in March 2025, fossil fuel consumption actually rose in 2024, led by a surge in natural gas demand.

Now, the data released by Climate TRACE further shows that the world’s continued dependence on fossil fuels is pushing emissions higher. Unless countries act faster to reduce fossil fuel use, the progress made through renewable energy could be overshadowed by the growing demand for fossil fuels.

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