Subscribe
More than 68 per cent of temperate rainforests would be lost to climate change under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, a team of researchers has found.
‘Business-as-usual’ suggests a likely outcome if no concerted efforts are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The study, published by researchers from the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom, suggests that about two-thirds of such forests would be lost under this scenario by 2100. Some regions may lose forest cover by 90 per cent, the research pointed out.
“Temperate rainforests are rare ecosystems found only in wet and cool regions, making them vulnerable to a warming climate. They are important to conserve because they host unique species and can store high amounts of carbon,” the study noted.
These forest systems depend on a cool and moist climate biome, which is globally rare and is threatened by climate change.
Limiting global warming below two degrees Celsius will limit the damage to 9 per cent, the researchers said.
The scientists used existing maps, along with past weather records, to estimate favourable conditions needed for the forests’ survival.
Temperate rainforests are spread over less than one per cent of the planet’s terrestrial surface and account for about 2.5 per cent global forest cover. However, they are critical owing to their ecological significance and having higher carbon density, compared to forests in other latitudes.
The countries with the largest temperate rainforest climate biome are Canada, the US, Chile, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the UK.
Ben Silver, lead author and research fellow from the University’s School of Earth and Environment, was quoted in a statement as saying, “Unmitigated climate change is a disaster for temperate rainforests in the UK and globally, as they cannot survive the kinds of high summer temperatures which we are starting to observe more regularly and are only predicted to worsen in future climate change simulations.”
The study also observed that up to 43 per cent of the existing temperate rainforest biome has already been lost to deforestation and only 37 per cent of primary old growth forest remains. Regions like Europe have almost none and the researchers underlined the need for protection and restoration of the temperate rainforest biome.
The researchers also warned that their study might underestimate the actual impacts of climate change on these forests as their climate scenarios did not include impacts of extreme events such as landslides, windstorms and heatwaves.
Such instances may accelerate the extinction of these forests.
The statement further noted that the current assessment was based on ongoing forest degradation and did not consider how the microclimate would respond to global warming.
“It is well known that the microclimate of intact forests is typically cooler than ambient temperatures and this buffering may reduce the severity of warming impacts on forest functioning and biodiversity,” the study said.
The experts warned that fragmented and isolated forests and those on the fringes are more vulnerable to climate warming as compared to intact forests.