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A study predicted that global cancer cases in men will rise to 19 million by 2050, marking an 84.3 per cent increase from the 2022 estimate. The number of cancer deaths is projected to reach 10.5 million by 2050, a 93.2 per cent increase from the 2022 estimate, according to the report published in the journal Cancer August 12, 2024.
Lung cancer is expected to remain the most prevalent type of cancer in terms of both cases and fatalities through 2050, with an increase of over 87 per cent compared to 2022 estimates.
Cancer cases and deaths are anticipated to rise by 39 per cent among working-age groups and by 50 per cent in countries / territories with a very high Human Development Index (HDI).
In 2022, disparities in cancer incidence and mortality among men were noted across different age groups, countries / territories and HDI levels. These disparities are projected to become even more pronounced by 2050.
Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu from the University of Queensland, Australia and colleagues analysed 30 cancer types among men in 2022, with projections estimated for 2050. The 2022 GLOBOCAN estimates were used to describe cancer statistics for men in 185 countries / territories worldwide.
In 2022, there were an estimated 10.3 million cancer cases and 5.4 million cancer deaths among men globally, with nearly two thirds of cases and deaths occurring among older adults (aged 65 years and older).
Lung cancer was the most common cancer in terms of cases and deaths, although slight variations in the leading cancer type were noted across age groups. For instance, testicular cancer cases and leukemia deaths were ranked the highest among adolescents and young adults (AYA).
In 2022, a high mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) which indicates poor survival was observed among men aged 65 years and older (61 per cent), for rare cancer types like pancreatic cancer (91 per cent) and in countries with low a HDI (74 per cent). Prostate cancer was the leading cancer type in 140 countries / territories.
The global age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and prevalence of cancer per 100,000 men in 2022 were 212.6, 109.8 and 178.8, respectively. The highest and lowest ASIRs were reported in Europe (307.6 per 100,000 men) and Southeast Asia (110.0 per 100,000 men) respectively.
The ASMR per 100,000 men ranged from 76.4 per 100,000 in Southeast Asia to 136.2 per 100,000 in Europe. The highest prevalence of cancer was observed in Europe (432.5 per 100,000 men), whereas the lowest was observed in Africa (34.3 per 100,000 men).
Countries that had a very high HDI had an ASIR that was about three times higher (320.6 per 100,000 men) compared to countries that had a low HDI (98.9 per 100,000 men).
ASMR ranged from 72.2 per 100,000 in men in countries with low HDI to 119.9 per 100,000 men in countries with high HDI. The prevalence per 100,000 men ranged from 28 per 100,000 in low-HDI countries to 478.2 per 100,000 in countries with a very high HDI, noted the authors of the report.
From 2022 to 2050, cases of mesothelioma (the most common kind of lung cancer) is expected to see the highest rise (105.5 per cent from 2022), while prostate cancer is projected to have the highest increase in deaths (136.4 per cent increase). Testicular cancer is anticipated to have the smallest rise in both incident cases (22.7 per cent increase) and deaths (40 per cent increase).
Changes in cases and deaths from 2022 to 2050 are expected to vary by age group, with the oldest age group projected to see a larger increase in cancer cases and deaths compared to the youngest.
In Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, cases and deaths are projected to increase 2.5-fold between 2022 and 2050. Conversely, Europe is expected to see an increase of about 50 per cent. A decline of 5–18 per cent in cases and deaths is projected among AYAs in Europe, the Western Pacific and the Americas, while increases are expected for middle-aged adults, the working-age group, older adults and all ages combined.
The percentage increase in cancer cases from 2022 to 2050 is projected to range from 50.2 per cent in countries with very high HDI to 138.6 per cent in those with low HDI. Cancer deaths are expected to increase by 63.9 per cent in very high HDI countries and by 141.6 per cent in low HDI countries.
The percentage change in cases and deaths across different HDI levels is also projected to vary by age group, with a projected decline of approximately 11 per cent in cases and deaths among AYAs in high and very high HDI countries.
Global cancer burden is growing and a majority of the countries do not adequately finance priority cancer and palliative care services, as part of universal health coverage.
International Agency for Research on Cancer, in its 2024 estimate, said that in 2022 there were about 20 million new cancer cases and 9.7 million deaths. The estimated number of people who were alive within five years following a cancer diagnosis was 53.5 million.
About one in five people develop cancer in their lifetime, approximately one in nine men and one in 12 women die from the disease.
For men, there are no well-adapted, male-specific cancer screening programmes, unlike the female-specific breast and cervical cancer screenings that help reduce cancer mortality.
Improving health infrastructure, workforce quality and access, encouraging national and international partnerships, and advocating for universal health coverage can significantly reduce cancer disparities and promote cancer equity.