Scientists think next pandemic could hit in 10 years, viruses biggest threat: Survey

More than 50 per cent of global infectious disease experts believe that the next pandemic could strike in about five to 10 years, found a new survey.

Some 94 per cent of experts voted that new viral pathogens carried the highest threat of seeding potential large-scale outbreaks, followed by bacteria, fungus and parasites, according to the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition, an industry-led network organisation of 22 scientific and public health organisations that works to identify, track and respond to emerging viral threats.

Further, airborne transmission emerged as a “very likely” mode of transmitting infectious diseases that could seed outbreaks, followed by respiratory (droplet), animal or insect transmission (tick, mosquito, bird), foodborne or waterborne (oral) transmission, blood or body fluids transmission, sexually transmitted diseases and the mother-to-child route.

The Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition surveyed more than 100 experts in virology, epidemiology and infectious diseases around the world to collect data on their priorities for addressing the gaps in readiness for disease outbreaks, views on how the changing environment is impacting infectious diseases and suggestions for building a resilient healthcare system capable of identifying and responding to emerging disease outbreaks around the world.

“Just as scientists have developed sophisticated monitoring systems to track emerging storms and hurricanes, our job as virus hunters is to identify pathogens that have the potential to spark outbreaks in order to stay one step ahead,” Gavin Cloherty, head of infectious disease research at Abbott and head of the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition, said in a statement. 

Disease surveillance, he added, acts as a radar, helping prioritise which viruses are most likely to trigger an outbreak and where those outbreaks may occur.

The experts ranked highly transmissible pathogens as factors with the most potential to accelerate a local outbreak into an epidemic or pandemic. Standing second and third were novel viruses or no countermeasures available (tests, vaccines, treatments) and asymptomatic or silent transmission.

Some 61 per cent of the experts thought that mosquito-borne infections will pose a greater threat to human health as the climate changes. Only 21 per cent believed that the biggest threat of climate change could come from avian sources, followed by animals and ticks.

Mosquitoes spread viruses that cause dengue fever, Zika virus, West Nile virus and malaria. Though they are common in tropical areas, including Latin America, Africa and Asia, scientists warned that warming temperatures and more flooding are pushing mosquitos to move into newer places. 

More than 80 per cent of experts rated expanding or changing range due to climate change as factors that could make outbreaks more frequent or severe. About 59 per cent noted that extreme storms that cause flooding, tsunamis, and hurricanes could make outbreaks more frequent or severe.

As for pandemic preparedness, 41 per cent of experts voted that the biggest gap in pandemic preparedness was surveillance programmes to identify emerging pathogens. About 25 per cent observed the biggest gap was in public health infrastructure.