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West Bengal may escape the devastating impact of Cyclone Dana with the storm system shifting westward and expected to make landfall southwest of Dhamra port, near Bhitarkanika national park, close to midnight on October 24, 2024.
“West Bengal may be less affected than predicted earlier as the cyclonic system seems to be shifting further westwards, closer to Paradip,” former India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General K J Ramesh told Down To Earth (DTE).
Most of the seven models considered by IMD have now agreed on the possible location and timing of landfall.
Earlier, three of 7 models had indicated that the landfall may start early morning on October 25. However, the reasonable speed of the system, in the range of 10 to 15 km per hour since early October 24 morning is likely to ensure that the landfall will start on October24 itself.
“Of the 7 models we consider — four international; two regional and one of our cyclone shelter — six agree about the place and time of landfall. Only one model indicates a much-delayed landfall,” said a senior IMD expert.
The landfall process is likely to be completed by the early hours of October 25now.
The latest IMD national bulletin — number 18 — released at 8.30 pm based on data received till 5.30 pm on October 24, clarified that Purba Medinipur district of West Bengal is likely to be impacted the most by Cyclone Dana in the state.
“It (gale wind) would gradually increase, becoming 100-110 kmph, gusting to 120 kmph along and off north Odisha and the East Medinipur district of West Bengal from 24th afternoon till morning of 25th October,” states the bulletin.
The storm surge prediction is of 1-2 metre height above astronomical tide in Purba Medinipur and the districts in Odisha, while the same is predicted at half, 0.5-1 metres, for the Sundarbans.
“The peak of the next high tide is at about 3 am at Sagar Island. Hence, the cyclone landfall may partially overlap with the high tide. But as the mora jowar is expected currently, we are not expecting much overtopping or breaching. However, we are watching the situation carefully,” a senior West Bengal government official told this correspondent on October 24 afternoon.
The mora jowar indicates a weak high tide and according to Kolkata Port Trust data, the maximum height expected on early October 25 morning is 3.8 metres above the astronomical height.
“As the combined height may be five metres at the most, we do not expect overtopping in Sagar and adjoining areas. However, we have already fixed a few vulnerable embankment points. Nearly 23,000 people have been taken to disaster shelters and pregnant women have been shifted to hospital as a precaution. People in vulnerable Ghoramara island have also been shifted to a new disaster shelter,” the block development officer of Sagar told this correspondent on October 24.
“Though there is not much strong wind yet, severe rain has started,” said Shankar Ari, a local from Bali island in Gosaba within the Sundarbans.
Kolkata, around 250 km away from the possible landfall point and close to the edge of the cyclonic system, is set to record strong winds in the range of 60 to 70 km, gusting up to 80 km per hour. There will also be heavy to very heavy rain in a few places.
“We are prepared to counter the situation and appropriate directions have already been issued to related departments. We will have our control room ready throughout the night,” said mayor Firhad Hakim.
The Sundarbans, falling within the South 24 Parganas district, is likely to face the cyclone in the range of 80 to 90 km, rising up to 100 km. But the resultant storm surge may not be that high despite the landfall partially overlapping with high tide. This is because of the mora jowar or weak high tide.
The IMD bulletin has pointed out that the landfall is likely to occur “close to Bhitarkanika and Dhamra”. But the latitude-longitude analysis points towards a place called Tentulidadian, located marginally to the southwest of Dhamra port as the landfall point.
The bulletin states that “the severe cyclonic storm “DANA” ...over northwest Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards with a speed of 10 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 24th October, over the same region...about 150 km southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 180 km south-southeast of Dhamara (Odisha) and 250 km south of Sagar Island (West Bengal)”.
“It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross north Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Puri and Sagar Island close to Bhitarkanika and Dhamara (Odisha) during mid-night of 24th to morning of 25th October, 2024 as a severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting 120 kmph,” added the report.
“The system is moving in a quickened speed for last several hours, and hence the expected landfall, which earlier seems to be early morning of October 25, can now happen much earlier,” observed Ramesh, former director of IMD.