Humid heatwaves in southern West Africa made 10 times more likely by climate change: Study

In southern West Africa, humid heatwaves usually occur in March or April, but they arrived in February 2024. The humid heatwaves in southern West Africa in February, would have been ‘impossible’ without human-induced climate change, according to an analysis by the international team of leading climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group, released March 22, 2024.  

The researchers found that climate change made the heatwave as measured by the heat index about 4°C hotter. The heat index, also known as apparent temperature, is a measure that combines temperature and humidity to reflect how heat feels to the human body because higher levels of humidity make it harder for the humans to cool down.

While the average air temperature in West Africa was above 36°C, the heat index for the same period was about 50°C. The combination of humidity and high temperatures caused dangerous conditions.  

Heat index even entered the level of ‘extreme danger’ that is associated with high risk of heat stroke, with values up to 60°C, said the analysis which involved scientists from Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Switzerland, Sweden, South Africa, the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. 

Such humid heatwave in southern West Africa during February were made 10 times more likely due to climate change, according to the analysis.  

“Such heatwaves used to be rare events, occurring less than once every 100 years. However, in today’s climate, with 1.2°C of warming, similar humid heatwaves occur about once every 10 years,” read the 27-page analysis. 

At 2°C, similar events occur once every two years

While Africa has contributed negligibly to the changing climate, it stands out disproportionately as the most vulnerable region in the world. 

There is only a 14 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, considering the most optimistic climate action projects, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) stated in the 14th Emissions Gap Report 2023. 

This implies that if the world does not quickly transition away from fossil fuels and achieve Net Zero emissions, Africa will continue to feel the effects. West Africa will become a further 1.2-3.4°C hotter, it said.

Urgent need to scale up investments

The 27-page analysis covered nine countries — Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone and small parts of Guinea and Cameroon.

Scientists observed that despite the possibility of the heatwave affecting millions of people in these nations, authorities — the government and media in particular — are not doing enough to raise public awareness of the dangers of extreme heat and to identify its effects.

For instance, numerous casualties from heat-related incidents remain unrecorded at the national level due to the absence of robust institutional policies. EMDAT database, which captures data on extreme weather events and loss and damage, including mortality due to heat waves, also does not reflect the complete picture. 

Although national weather services are aware of heat risk, preparedness activities are not implemented systematically and the weather services only recently started working towards Heat Early Warning systems.

For example, in Nigeria, a heat-health warning issued in February called for the declaration of a state of emergency in areas severely impacted by the heatwave.

There are no validated ‘Early Action Protocols’ or heat action plans currently in place in this region, said the study acknowledging efforts of municipal authorities in Sierra Leone’s capital Freetown.

Eugenia Kargbo was appointed the first African Chief Heat Officer in 2021 to work on adaptation to extreme heat. In 2023, Freetown’s first climate action plan was launched alongside the Heat Season Campaign. 

So, with unseasonably early and hotter heatwaves in a region with highly vulnerable populations, there is an urgent need to scale up investments in monitoring, research and adaptation, according to the scientists.

This will include, but is not limited to, improving coverage and quality of critical services such as electricity, healthcare, water and sanitation, and extending heat warnings to hot days outside of the typically hot season.

Under such scenario, major investment is needed in Africa to build resilience to dangerous heat. But, the climate finance gap poses a significant threat to Africa’s ability to adapt, mitigate and build resilience against climate change. 

The continent is left with a gap of $200-400 billion dollars every year by 2030. The climate financing hurdles took a centrestage at African economic ministers’ conference as well. 

Further, the rich developed countries have spent just $21 billion to help developing countries adapt to climate change. They have failed on the promises made to help developing countries including Africa, become more resilient to the growing risks of climate change, noted the attribution study.

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