Bonn conference: current emission trends will lead to warmer world

IEA report foresees temperature increase under existing policies; developed countries not doing enough to close gap

Meeting the 2-degree challenge for climate change is still feasible technically but extremely challenging, says the World Energy Outlook Special Report released at the climate change meeting currently underway in Bonn, Germany. In the report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lays out an action plan for countries to ensure that staying within a global temperature increase of 2 degree Celsius does not go beyond our reach.

IEA 4-for-2 degree Celsius Scenario: four policy measures to keep the door to 2-degree open

Adopting specific energy efficiency measures – household emissions such as those from heating, cooling and lighting, motor systems in industry and road vehicle standards in transport sector (1.5 Gt in 2020)
Ensuring that new sub-critical coal-fired power plants are no longer built (reduce emissions by 640 Mt in 2020)
Methane releases into the atmosphere from the upstream oil and gas industry would be almost halved in 2020
Accelerated action towards a partial phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies (reduce CO2 emissions by 360 Mt)

Climate Analytics Tracker: Countries taking steps backwards

Canada appears to have vastly underestimated fugitive emissions from gas exploration in British Colombia, putting into question its entire emissions reporting, to the tune of up to 207 MtCO2eq by 2020.
The shale gas boom in the US may not be as good for its emissions profile as reports try to make it out to be, as there is an absence of reliable data on fugitive emissions. While domestic coal use is decreasing, cheap US coal exports to Europe are rising, competing with renewable – and ultimately making no difference to global emissions.
Japan’s coal use is also on the rise and a new target is likely to be significantly less than the current 25 per cent by 2020 target put forward by the previous government.
Changes in Queensland’s land clearance law put into question whether Australia can meet its already inadequate pledge – and its entire climate package is under doubt if a new government is elected in September.

Current policies insufficient

North needs to do more